Wehen vs Bayern Munich: prediction and odds

Last summer, these two sides clashed in the first round of the DFB-Pokal, and Wehen Wiesbaden found themselves just minutes away from a sensational draw in regular time, ultimately falling 2:3. Now, can the humble third-division side claim a measure of revenge in a friendly match, while the vast majority of Bayern Munich’s squad is still resting after the World Cup?

Tactical Analysis: Wehen Wiesbaden

Wehen are not a club prone to major upheaval. Last season, the Wiesbaden outfit confirmed their status as a solid mid-table team in the 3. Liga, finishing in ninth place. To achieve this, they had to change coaches late in the autumn, bringing in Daniel Scherning. This summer, under his guidance, Wehen has played three friendly matches: at their home base, they narrowly defeated fourth-tier Homburg (1:0), before heading to a training camp in Austria. There, they beat the fairly strong Japanese side Okayama (2:0) and lost to local side Liefering (0:2). Notably, their defensive play has been solid—after all, the Austrians had previously scored three times against Jablonec, a club that frequently participates in European qualification rounds.

Two important figures have left Wehen this summer: Sascha Mockenhaupt, a living legend of the club with 353 appearances, and Fatih Kaya, who scored those two goals against Bayern in the cup and recorded 11 goals and 4 assists in the previous league campaign. A good replacement for the former has been found in Philipp Herrcher (97 games at the second-division level), while Sinan Karweina (11 goals and 12 assists over two seasons at Luzern) has arrived to fill the latter’s shoes. The midfield has been strengthened by the signing of Max Brandt, who performed well at Ulm (2 goals, 2 assists, and 35 starts in a season). Overall, the squad’s level has remained roughly the same.

Tactical Analysis: Bayern Munich

Domestically, Bayern currently has no rivals. And globally, there are very few left. Last season, the Munich side shattered the Bundesliga scoring record with a staggering 122 goals and reclaimed the DFB-Pokal by thrashing Stuttgart 3:0 in the final. In the Champions League, only Paris Saint-Germain could stop them (4:5, 1:1) at the semi-final stage. However, in this upcoming match, we will see a completely different squad, as 19 first-team players have yet to return from vacation. This includes new signings Nathaniel Brown and Ismaël Saibari, on whom a combined €100 million was spent.

It is easier to list those who have already started training: Sven Ulreich, who will likely take his place in goal, Sacha Boey, Tom Bischof, João Palhinha, and Arijon Ibrahimović. These names might be enough to get the better of Wehen, but they are only just beginning to build match fitness. The defense is the most vulnerable area, as aside from Boey, Vincent Kompany only has very young players from the youth academy at his disposal. In attack, we will likely see Wisdom Mike, who has already gained experience with the senior team, as well as Yil Gashi—another academy product who recorded 12 goals and 6 assists in the previous season at the youth level and for Bayern II.

Predicted Lineups

Wehen Wiesbaden (3-4-2-1): Stritzel – Lewald, Janitzek, Gillekens – Herrcher, Gözüsirin, Suárez, May – Calem, Schleimer – Flotho

Out: Hübner (injured), Wohlers (doubtful)

Head Coach: Daniel Scherning

Bayern Munich (4-2-3-1): Ulreich – Boey, Mijatović, Schäfer, Adayemi – Chaves, Palhinha – Ibrahimović, Bischof, Mike – Gashi

Out: Buchmann, Kiala, Daiber, Karl, Gnabry, Zaragoza (all injured), Urbig, Neuer, Tah, Upamecano, Ito, Min-jae, Laimer, Stanišić, Davies, Brown, Kimmich, Pavlović, Musiala, Olise, Díaz, Saibari, Kane (all not in the squad)

Head Coach: Vincent Kompany

Referee

The referee for this match has not been specified in the source material.

Prediction and Bet

Main Prediction: Wehen Wiesbaden (+1.5) Handicap

The Munich side will take to the field in a maximally experimental lineup. All their leaders are on vacation, and only two players—Bischof and Palhinha—currently match the status of a formidable Bayern. But even they only started training on Tuesday; there is no question of any match sharpness yet. Scherning’s charges, on the other hand, began their pre-season preparations in early July, have completed a full training camp, and played three friendlies—in terms of physical condition, they definitely have the advantage. Kaya, who scored a brace in the last head-to-head, has left the hosts’ squad, but they have retained the rest of their core, so they can once again give the German champions a fight. We recommend taking Wehen Wiesbaden (+1.5) on the handicap.

Total Goals Prediction: However, it is hard to imagine that even in their current combinations, the Bavarians will leave the pitch without scoring. Kompany always employs a high defensive line and man-to-man pressing, which requires maximum coordination. The young players will give their all to earn praise from the head coach, but they are unlikely to avoid defensive errors. Again, even the star-studded lineup managed to concede twice to Wehen in the cup. In the current circumstances, this would not even be a surprise. You can bet on both teams to score—yes, or take a risk and try the individual total of Wehen Wiesbaden over (1.5).