Draw No Bet and Its Alternatives
Where the draw no bet price comes from, how it compares with the outright, double chance and Asian handicap 0 on the same fixture, and what the refund really costs.
Draw no bet removes the draw from the equation: back a side, and if the match finishes level your stake comes back. It sits between the outright price and the double chance — safer than one, more generous than the other — and it is priced directly from the 1X2 market, not invented separately.
This guide shows where the price comes from, how draw no bet compares with the alternatives on the same fixture, and when the extra safety is worth what it costs.
In short.
- Draw no bet pays if your side wins and refunds the stake if the match ends level.
- Its fair price comes from splitting the draw probability out of the 1X2 book.
- It is the same bet as Asian handicap 0 — the two settle identically.
- Compared with double chance, it pays more when you win but returns nothing extra on a draw.
- The safety is not free: you give up a large slice of the outright price for it.
Part of the series
Read 1X2 betting explained first — draw no bet is derived from that market. The related safety play is covered in double chance, and the identical Asian version in handicap betting.
How settlement works
| Result | Draw no bet on the home side |
|---|---|
| Home win | Wins at the quoted price |
| Draw | Stake refunded in full |
| Away win | Loses |
That refund is the whole point. You are no longer betting on three outcomes, only on which side is better if somebody wins.
Deriving the price from the 1X2 book
Take a line of 2.10 for the home side, 3.40 for the draw and 3.60 for the away side. Implied probabilities are 47.6%, 29.4% and 27.8%, which totals 104.8% — the book includes a 4.6% mark-up on turnover.
Draw no bet ignores the draw entirely, so the question becomes: among matches that produce a winner, how often does the home side win? That is 47.6 ÷ (47.6 + 27.8) = 63.1%, and the fair price is 1 ÷ 0.631 = 1.58.
Example. You stake ₦1,000 on the home side at a quoted 1.52. Home win returns ₦1,520. A draw returns your ₦1,000. An away win loses the stake. Against the fair 1.58 you are paying about 4% for the convenience of having the draw taken out.
Comparing the four ways to back one side
Same fixture, same opinion, four different instruments. The expected return column uses the cleaned probabilities: home 45.4%, draw 28.1%, away 26.5%.
| Bet | Typical price | Pays on | Expected return per ₦1,000 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Home outright | 2.10 | Home win only | ₦953 |
| Draw no bet | 1.52 | Home win; refund on draw | ₦971 |
| Double chance 1X | 1.30 | Home win or draw | ₦955 |
| Asian handicap 0 | 1.55 | Same as draw no bet | ₦985 |
Two things stand out. First, the outright and the double chance return almost the same amount — the safety of the double chance is fully priced in. Second, the Asian handicap 0 is simply a better-priced version of draw no bet on this line, and shopping between the two labels is free money when they differ.
When draw no bet is the right choice
- You expect a tight match with a likely winner. Two attacking sides, few draws in their recent meetings, but no clear favourite.
- The favourite is missing a striker, not a defender. Fewer goals raises draw risk without changing who is better.
- Cup ties with extra time ahead. Check the rules: many operators settle on 90 minutes, so a draw refunds even though the tie continues.
- Early-season matches. Form is unclear, and the draw is the outcome you are least able to predict.
Important. Draw no bet is not a way to make a weak opinion safe. If you cannot say which side is better, removing the draw does not help — you are still backing one team, just at a shorter price.
What it costs you
The refund has a price, and it is easy to measure: compare the outright and the draw no bet prices on the same selection. On our line, 2.10 becomes 1.52 — you surrender 58 points of price to protect against a 28% outcome. That trade is fair only if you rate the draw at least as likely as the market does.
If you think the draw is less likely than 28%, the outright price is better value for you. If you think it is more likely, the double chance or a total-based market may fit better than either.
FAQ
Is draw no bet the same as Asian handicap 0?
In settlement, yes: both refund on a draw and pay on a win. The difference is only in labelling and, sometimes, in price. Always compare the two on the same selection — operators do not always price them identically, and the gap is free value.
Does it apply to extra time?
Usually not. Most operators settle on 90 minutes plus stoppage time, so a cup tie level after 90 minutes refunds your stake regardless of what happens in extra time. Check the rules before staking, because a minority settle on the full result.
Is it better than double chance?
Neither is better in general. Draw no bet pays more when your side wins but nothing extra on a draw; double chance pays less but turns a draw into a small win. On our example line both returned almost the same expected amount, which is the normal state of affairs.
Can I use it in accumulators?
You can, and a refunded leg is treated as odds of 1.00 — the accumulator continues with the remaining legs. That softens one type of failure but does nothing about the compounding margin, which is covered in single, accumulator and system bets.
This article is for information only and is not an inducement to gamble. Betting involves the risk of losing money — never stake more than you can afford to lose. 18+. If gambling stops being entertainment, read our responsible gambling guide and seek help.
