Ararat-Armenia vs Celje: prediction and odds

Both clubs have already achieved significant success in their current European campaign, having reached the third qualifying round of the Champions League for the first time. Six years ago, they met face-to-face in the Europa League qualifiers: in Yerevan, Ararat-Armenia secured a victory in extra time (1-0) and advanced. Is Celje ready for revenge?

Tactical Analysis: Ararat-Armenia

Ararat Starts with Home Victories

Tulipa’s side also began their previous two rounds with a home match. So far, this has been a winning tradition – Riga and Shamrock Rovers were both defeated by the same scoreline of 2-0. All of Ararat’s goals came in the second halves, but in different styles: against the Latvians, they dominated thanks to a numerical advantage, while they caught the Irish twice on counterattacks. Away from home, the team allowed their opponents to quickly equalize, but after the break, they stepped up again and settled for narrow defeats (2-3, 1-2 respectively).

The Armenian Premier League did not adjust its schedule for Ararat by postponing the first round so the team could focus on the Champions League – just four days after the trip to Ireland, the Armenians took part in a high-scoring shootout with Gandzasar (4-3). The coaching staff used a rotated lineup: from the starting eleven, only defenders Junior Julio and Bruno Pereira played the full match, so there should be no issues with physical readiness.

Tactical Analysis: Celje

Celje’s Controversial Start to the Season

The Slovenian club began their qualification in the second round, but they expended no less nervous energy. Both matches against Egnatia (3-3, 2-2 in regular time) started with early own goals in their net, but closer to the end of the first half, Mario Kvesić equalized. The midfielder became the hero – he scored four of the six goals in this tie. Everything was decided in a penalty shootout, where Celje converted four consecutive spot-kicks, while their opponents missed two of their three attempts.

The squad underwent a major overhaul in the summer. While the departure of last season’s top scorer Nikita Iosifov (16 goals in all competitions) is not yet so noticeable, the losses of Žan Karničnik and Juanjo Nieto have clearly impacted the quality of the defense. In addition to the five goals conceded in the Champions League, Celje have allowed at least one goal in four of their five friendly matches, in most cases being the favorite, as well as three times in two league rounds. Only Hajduk managed to beat them (0-1) in a friendly, but they also secured just two wins – against Macedonian Shkëndija (1-0) and Hungarian MTK (4-3).

Predicted Lineups: Ararat-Armenia vs. Celje

Ararat-Armenia (4-3-3): Bravim – Oliveira, Julio, Wilson, Pereira – Carlier, Muradyan, Tera – Serobyan, Lima, Shagoyan

Out: Balanta Junior (injury)

Head Coach: Tulipa

Celje (4-3-3): Leban – Širvys, Hrka, Tutyskinas, Kuttris – Zabukovnik, Daniel, Kvesić – Šešlar, Kučys, Avduli

Out: Pišek (injury)

Head Coach: Vítor Campelos

Referee: Ivan Kružliak (Slovakia)

One of the strictest Slovakian referees. In the Super League, he averages 4.83 yellow cards and records 30.11 fouls per match. However, in European competitions, Kružliak demonstrates a more lenient style: 4.2 warnings and 24.2 fouls per game over a stretch of 20 matches. Notably, during this time, he has generously awarded 10 penalties. Teams should act with particular caution in their own penalty area.

Prediction and Bet: Ararat-Armenia vs. Celje

Main Prediction: Ararat-Armenia to win at 2.94

In the first head-to-head meeting, bookmakers give a slight preference to the Slovenians, which looks illogical in the current circumstances. Celje churn out draws regardless of the opponent’s strength, while Ararat have begun their Champions League qualifying round with wins twice in a row, even though Riga and Shamrock Rovers were initially considered favorites. The visitors were unable to overcome Egnatia in regular time – a more modest opponent compared to their current one – so we believe the hosts have a greater chance of success in this match. Moreover, their coaching staff carried out a more significant squad rotation in the league than Vítor Campelos did. Our pick: Ararat-Armenia to win at 2.94.

Prediction on Total Goals: Tulipa’s charges have scored in every qualifying match. Furthermore, they have netted exactly two goals in three out of four cases. However, it will be very difficult for them to maintain a clean sheet at home, as Celje are no slouches either: the team averages 1.66 shots on target against opponents this summer (including friendlies). For a safety net, you could bet on both teams to score – yes, but we will take a risk and go for over 2.5 goals at odds of 1.95.