Arsenal vs Borussia Dortmund: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Before the official season kicks off, Arsenal will once again host the Emirates Cup, a traditional preseason fixture against an invited guest. The Gunners have won the trophy four years in a row, but this time they arrive not only as the reigning champions of the tournament but also as the Premier League titleholders. The question on everyone’s mind: can Borussia Dortmund break that streak?

Arsenal: Vinicius Deal Off and Key Players Resting

The "Gunners" are preparing for the new season in an unfamiliar role—as both Premier League champions and Champions League finalists. Their first test after the break came in a closed-door friendly against MK Dons, which they won 3-0 while experimenting with different lineups. In subsequent friendlies against Girona (4-1) and Real Betis (1-3), Mikel Arteta fielded his strongest possible starting XI from the outset. Notably, all goals conceded in the Betis match came before the half-time substitutions.

One standout performer has been new signing Christos Tzolis, who has registered a goal and two assists across the three matches. Beyond the Greek winger and the permanent signing of Piero Hincapié, Arsenal have not made any major splash in the transfer market, despite persistent rumors linking them with Vinicius Junior. The key takeaway is that the core of the squad has been preserved.

However, several players who featured in the latter stages of the World Cup—including David Raya, Declan Rice, Mikel Merino, Martin Zubimendi, Eberechi Eze, Bukayo Saka, and Noni Madueke—will only return to full training early next week. Additionally, key defenders William Saliba and Jurriën Timber are sidelined with injuries. With the squad far from full strength, motivated backups and young talents are getting their chance. For instance, 16-year-old Max Dowman contributed a goal and an assist in the Girona match.

Borussia Dortmund: Pragmatism Even in Preseason

Dortmund’s preseason has followed a pragmatic approach. Before traveling to London, they completed two stages of preparation. First, they played two friendlies in Germany against lower-league local sides—a 3-1 win over Rot-Weiss and a 1-2 loss to the more prominent Fortuna Düsseldorf. The primary objective in those matches was to evaluate young players rather than re-establish old connections.

For their training camp in Japan, Dortmund took a more competitive squad. However, only in the match against FC Tokyo (a 1-0 win) did some returning internationals feature. In the subsequent game against Cerezo Osaka (a 1-0 loss), the defense deserves credit for keeping the xGA (expected goals against) under 1.0. Yet, Dortmund still lost the xG battle overall (1.22 to 1.55).

The World Cup took a heavier toll on Dortmund than on Arsenal, largely because their squad depth isn’t as strong. Furthermore, the club saw the departures of Julian Brandt and Karim Adeyemi during this transfer window—both inconsistent but still important attacking pieces. Gregor Kobel and Julian Ryerson have recently returned to training, but it’s unlikely they’ll be thrown straight into action. Emre Can and Nico Schlotterbeck remain injured, leaving a significant hole in central defense.

Interestingly, Dortmund’s most notable summer signing so far is also a Greek player from the Belgian league—Konstantinos Karetsas. The attacking midfielder completed a full friendly for Genk over the summer and is now training fully with his new teammates, making his debut in this match a real possibility.

Predicted Lineups

Arsenal (4-3-3): Arrizabalaga – White, Mosquera, Hincapié, Calafiori – Nwaneri, Lewis-Skelly, Havertz – Dowman, Gyökeres, Tzolis Unavailable: Saliba, Timber (both injured); Raya, Rice, Merino, Zubimendi, Eze, Saka, Madueke (all resting) Manager: Mikel Arteta

Borussia Dortmund (3-4-2-1): Meyer – Redjani, Anton, Ritter – Svensson, Job, Nmecha, Beyer – Inacio, Lerma – Silva Unavailable: Schlotterbeck, Can (both injured); Kobel, Ryerson, Mane, Chukwuemeka, Duarte (all doubtful) Manager: Niko Kovač

Prediction and Betting Tip

Despite the friendly nature of the match, Arsenal take the Emirates Cup very seriously. They have won the last four editions against opponents like Sevilla, Monaco, Lyon, and Athletic Bilbao, with a combined score of 12-1. The only exception was three years ago against Monaco, which went to penalties after a 1-1 draw in regulation time.

Playing at home is a significant advantage for the Gunners. While both teams are affected by post-World Cup absences, Arteta has stronger combinations at his disposal. Dortmund are simply not in a state to compete on equal terms with the Premier League champions right now. Even against mid-tier J.League opposition, they failed to impress. Back Arsenal to win at 1.65.

Goalscorer bet: There are serious doubts that Kovač’s side can find the net. First, Arsenal’s history in the Emirates Cup suggests defensive solidity. Second, Dortmund managed less than 1.0 xG against both FC Tokyo and Cerezo Osaka. Arsenal did concede against Girona and Betis, but those matches were away or on neutral ground. Last season, Arsenal were the most reliable defensive team at home, keeping 20 clean sheets in 31 matches across all competitions. Bet on both teams to score – No at 2.15.