Athletic vs Alavés: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

These two Basque rivals enter the derby in vastly contrasting circumstances. Athletic Bilbao were scheduled to face Levante midweek, but that fixture was called off due to torrential rain and an unplayable pitch — a stroke of luck that gave the hosts an unexpected rest before the clash. Deportivo Alavés enjoyed no such luxury; they played Valencia (losing 1-0) and now face their third match in eight days. To make matters worse for the visitors, they arrive at San Mamés on the back of two consecutive defeats, while their hosts have not lost in their last three league outings.

Athletic Building Momentum

After a sluggish start to the season, Athletic Bilbao are gradually finding their rhythm. In their last three matches, the Basques have collected seven points, with the most impressive display being a 3-0 thrashing of Atlético Madrid. However, the 1-1 draw against Elche in the most recent round revealed lingering issues: Terzic’s men dominated possession but failed to convert control into three points. Coach Edin Terzic labelled the result “bitter” while acknowledging that the team had taken another step forward in terms of performance. Athletic’s form is clearly improving, but they still lack consistency in front of goal.

The unexpected postponement of the Levante match could prove a decisive advantage. With no midweek exertions, the Athletic players arrive at the derby noticeably fresher than their opponents — a crucial edge in a congested fixture list. On the personnel front, Gorka Guruzeta has returned from injury, giving Terzic an extra option at centre-forward. That said, Dan Vivian, Unai Egiluz, and Peio Canales remain sidelined, though all three have been out for some time, so the squad has adapted to their absence. Overall, the team heads into the derby close to full strength, with sufficient depth in every department.

Alavés Hitting a Slide

Alavés burst out of the blocks this season, but after that bright start, results have tailed off. The team went unbeaten through the first four matchdays, and coach Quique Sánchez Flores was even named La Liga’s Manager of the Month for August. Their attack was particularly eye-catching: in those four games they racked up ten goals, including five in the 5-2 demolition of Osasuna. After that victory, Flores said he wanted to ensure the performance was not a “fleeting” moment. Since then, however, Alavés have lost momentum: two straight defeats follow that high, with only a single goal scored in that stretch.

The packed schedule adds another layer of difficulty. This will be Alavés’ third match in eight days. Flores has largely stuck with his core lineup and refrained from wholesale rotation, so the load on his key men continues to rise. There is good news, though: Toni Martínez is back. The forward netted 18 times across all competitions last season and was one of the team’s main attacking weapons. His return comes at a welcome time, especially given Alavés’ recent dip in firepower.

Predicted Lineups

Athletic Bilbao (4-2-3-1): Simón – Areso, Y. Álvarez, Laporte, Berchiche – Galarreta, Herrenabarrera – Navarro, Sancet, N. Williams – I. Williams Out: Vivian, Canales, Egiluz (all injured) Coach: Edin Terzic

Deportivo Alavés (5-2-1-2): Sivera – Pérez, Tenaglia, Koski, Valentini, Rebbach – Blanco, Ibáñez – Suárez – Martínez, Boyé Out: Garcés (suspension), M. Rodríguez, Mañas (both injured) Coach: Quique Sánchez Flores

Referee: Víctor García Verduro

García Verduro has officiated three La Liga matches this season, averaging three yellow cards and 23 fouls per game. He has not shown a single red card and has awarded one penalty. Last season his average was 3.26 yellows per match, so his approach remains consistent: he is not overly keen on brandishing bookings and allows teams to compete physically.

Prediction & Bet

Main prediction: Athletic to win with a handicap of -1.5 goals at odds of 2.70 — Athletic enter the derby fresher and in better form. In two of their last three games, the Basques have won by at least two goals, including the 3-0 rout of Atlético. The 1-1 draw with Elche should not mislead; Athletic were thoroughly dominant. Alavés, by contrast, have hit a wall after their flying start, losing to newly promoted Racing Santander (2-1) and a struggling Valencia (0-1). The most recent head-to-head on this ground also points in Athletic’s favour — a 4-2 victory. Backing the home side with a -1.5 handicap looks the right call at 2.70.

Goals prediction: Terzic’s side have been rock-solid without the ball lately, conceding just one goal in three matches — and that from a penalty. Not surprisingly, only one of Athletic’s last four games has seen both teams score. Alavés, meanwhile, have run into a scoring drought; they failed to find the net even against a shaky Valencia last time out (0-1). The history of this derby at San Mamés is also telling: in the last four meetings on this ground, only one team has scored each time. Therefore, the “both teams to score – no” option at 1.84 is worth considering.