Werder Bremen vs Augsburg: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Augsburg’s brief reign at the top of the Bundesliga table came to an end after they were held to a 2‑2 draw by Bayer Leverkusen, yet the side from Bavaria still sits among the leading pack. Werder Bremen, with four points to their name, occupy a mid‑table spot and are on the verge of a modest milestone: since returning to the top flight in 2022, they have never managed to win two of their first four league matches.

Tactical Analysis of Werder Bremen

The start of the season in Bremen can be viewed with cautious optimism. The heavy 1‑4 defeat to Freiburg on the opening day was quickly forgotten when they beat Leipzig in the next fixture, and last weekend they came away from Cologne with a 1‑1 draw. Daniel Thioune’s men showed resilience after a rocky opening phase: they conceded a penalty (which Hein saved) and then fell behind, but they regrouped and levelled in the second half.

The equaliser was scored by Niclas Füllkrug, who has settled back into life at Werder with evident comfort. That was his second league goal of the campaign, and both have come from corner‑kick deliveries. Bremen have clearly worked on this set‑piece routine – they lead the Bundesliga in goals from corners with three, having scored from one in each of the first three matchdays. That marks a dramatic improvement on last season, when they managed only two such goals in the entire 34‑game campaign.

Away from dead‑ball situations, however, Thioune’s side have looked less convincing. Their expected goals (xG) total after three rounds stands at just 2.59, placing them in the bottom three of the division. They have also mustered only 15 shots on target – only the three lowest‑scoring teams have fewer. On the injury front, Njinmah, who has featured in the Bundesliga, is unavailable, and Stage, who scored in the DFB‑Pokal, is also sidelined.

Tactical Analysis of Augsburg

Augsburg have exceeded expectations in the early weeks. After two matchdays they actually topped the table, but they could not sustain that momentum against Bayer Leverkusen, settling for a 2‑2 draw. Still, sharing the points with such a strong opponent is hardly a disappointment, even if the lead was surrendered late in the game. The statistics underline Leverkusen’s superiority: 30‑8 in shots and an xG of 2.64 against Augsburg’s 1.11.

If Manuel Baum’s team take all three points against Werder, they will achieve something unprecedented in their history – a start to a Bundesliga season with four matches unbeaten. This impressive beginning has been built on bold attacking play: Augsburg have scored nine goals from nearly 6 xG across the three fixtures. Striker Michael Gregoritsch is in fine form; his double against Leverkusen made him the club’s all‑time top scorer in the Bundesliga with 38 goals.

The trip to Bremen is viewed with confidence, as Werder have become Augsburg’s most favourable opponent in the league. The Fuggerstädter have not lost any of the last four head‑to‑head meetings, and across their entire Bundesliga history they have recorded more wins against Werder (14) than against any other club. They have also scored more goals against Bremen (45) than against any other side.

Predicted Lineups

Werder Bremen (4‑5‑1): Hein – Arthur, Pieper, Friedl, Deman – Dinkci, Reis, Chuki, Regeer, Grüll – Füllkrug Unavailable: Agu, Ndiaye, Njinmah, Stage, Topp (all injured) Head coach: Daniel Thioune

Augsburg (3‑4‑3): Dahmen – Banks, Matsima, Brakelmann – Wolf, Massengo, Rieder, Berens – Ibrahimi, Gregoritsch, Fellhauer Unavailable: Kade, Mounié, Sakar, Sosa (all injured); Breithaupt (doubtful) Head coach: Manuel Baum

Referee

The man in the middle is Bastian Dankert. He tends to be fairly lenient towards players and does not reach for his cards too often. In his last 20 Bundesliga matches, Dankert has averaged 3.2 yellow cards per game and recorded 19.4 fouls per match. Over that same period he has sent off only two players and awarded just two penalties.

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Augsburg to win at odds of 2.84 Werder have started the season reasonably well, but their output has relied heavily on set pieces – three of their five goals have come from corners. Moreover, Augsburg have proven to be a particularly awkward opponent for the hosts, winning both previous home meetings between the sides. Baum’s men have already claimed an away victory this term, thrashing Eintracht Frankfurt 4‑1, and they boast a strong recent record on the road with three wins in their last four Bundesliga away games. Backing Augsburg to take all three points at 2.84 looks a solid play.

Total goals prediction: Augsburg over 1.5 team goals at 1.91 Augsburg have netted nine times in the current campaign, a tally bettered only by Freiburg (10). They have also scored at least twice in three of their last four away league matches. Werder, meanwhile, have conceded six goals in three rounds, and in the two most recent head‑to‑head encounters they allowed Augsburg to find the net five times. A wager on Augsburg’s individual total to exceed 1.5 goals at 1.91 is worth considering.