Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur: prediction and odds

The London derby is heading Down Under as Chelsea and Tottenham Hotspur prepare to lock horns in another pre-season friendly on Australian soil. Xabi Alonso’s side are riding a wave of momentum, having won the last six meetings between these two clubs, and they will be eager to extend that streak. Roberto De Zerbi, meanwhile, is desperate to snap Tottenham’s losing run against their city rivals and build some positive momentum ahead of the new campaign.

Tactical Analysis: Chelsea

Chelsea have kicked off their pre-season tour in Australia, and Alonso’s tactical demands are already taking shape. In their first friendly, the Blues produced a goal-fest, dismantling Western Sydney Wanderers with a tennis-like scoreline of 6-4. Advanced metrics back up the result: Chelsea posted an expected goals (xG) of 3.22 against 1.81 for their opponents. However, the decisive edge only arrived after the 60th minute, when the first-team regulars entered the fray. The standout performer was João Pedro, who bagged a hat-trick and added an assist in a devastating spell.

The squad has been bolstered by the arrivals of Morgan Rogers, Marco Palestra, Geovani Kenda, and Emmanuel Emegha. At the same time, four players have left: Andrey Santos, Marc Cucurella, and Tariq George were sold, while Alejandro Garnacho departed on loan. Chelsea are also closing in on the signings of veterans Danny Welbeck and Jordan Henderson, with Alonso convinced that such experienced leaders are exactly what the dressing room needs right now.

Injury and availability issues remain a concern. New signings Emegha and Kenda are sidelined with injuries, while Rogers, Enzo Fernández, Malo Gusto, and Pedro Neto did not travel to Australia due to post-2026 World Cup rest. The club has also excluded Trevoh Chalobah, Benoît Badiashile, and Axel Disasi from the trip as they look to find new clubs for them. On a brighter note, Moisés Caicedo and Nicolas Jackson have completed their holidays, arrived in Sydney, and are ready to feature.

Tactical Analysis: Tottenham

Roberto De Zerbi’s side are gradually building match fitness, but the quality of their football on this Australian tour has raised some questions. Before heading overseas, they edged MK Dons 1-0, then in Oceania they beat Auckland 2-0 and drew 1-1 with Sydney FC (winning 4-2 on penalties). In that last friendly, Spurs failed to impress: despite dominating possession, they created chances only with difficulty. The modest xG figures of 1.43 against 0.73 tell the story. The positives were limited to a fine free-kick goal from Mathys Tel and the freshness of James Maddison and Dominic Solanke, whom the manager deliberately rested ahead of this derby.

The summer transfer window has seen Yves Bissouma leave as a free agent and defender Luka Vuskovic sold to Brighton. In response, Tottenham have brought in midfielder Sandro Tonali from Newcastle and Mateusz Fernandes, bought from West Ham. The defence has been reinforced with Jan Paul van Hecke (Brighton), Andrew Robertson (Liverpool), and Marcos Senesi (Bournemouth). This large but targeted overhaul is designed to quickly stabilise De Zerbi’s playing model.

The coaching staff are dealing with a serious shortage of personnel, forcing them to patch gaps with reserves. The injury list is a nightmare: Mohammed Kudus, Dejan Kulusevski, Wilson Odober, Xavi Simons, and goalkeeper Guglielmo Vicario are all recovering. The situation is worsened by the absence of a large group of key players – Porro, Bentancur, Sarr, and Spence have not yet returned from post-World Cup breaks. Furthermore, top new signing Mateusz Fernandes is a major doubt due to a muscle spasm and may miss Saturday’s London derby.

Predicted Lineups

Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Sánchez – Palestra, Colwill, Adarabioyo, Hato – Lavia, Essugo – Estevao, Palmer, João Pedro – Delap

Unavailable: Kenda, Emegha (both injured), James, Neto, Gusto, Fernández (all not in squad), Disasi, Chalobah, Badiashile (club decision)

Head coach: Xabi Alonso

Tottenham (4-2-3-1): Kinsky – Hall, van de Ven, Davies, Kirematen – Gallagher, Tonali – Solomon, Maddison, Tel – Solanke

Unavailable: Simons, Kulusevski, Odober, Kudus, Vicario (all injured), Romero, Senesi, Spence, Porro, Bentancur, Sarr (all not in squad), Fernandes (doubtful)

Head coach: Roberto De Zerbi

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Chelsea to win at 2.29

Both sides are grappling with significant squad issues ahead of this derby. Yet even amid mutual absences, Chelsea look the stronger proposition. The key argument in favour of the Blues is their psychological edge and a massive head-to-head advantage – they have won the last six meetings in a row. Moreover, unlike Spurs, who have struggled to create chances, Alonso’s men have already demonstrated fearsome attacking firepower. The high match sharpness of Cole Palmer and João Pedro, both of whom missed the World Cup, could prove decisive in tipping the scales. Back Chelsea to claim the win.

Total goals prediction: Over 3.5 at 2.27

Given Chelsea’s potent attack and the defensive vulnerabilities on both sides, this match has all the ingredients for another goal-filled spectacle. In their first pre-season outing, the Blues showed a clear attacking bias, scoring six but also conceding four. Tottenham’s far-from-optimal backline is unlikely to contain that onslaught, but Spurs themselves should capitalise on the still-disorganised Chelsea defence – especially since they have scored in all three of their pre-season games so far. With tactical experiments, rotation, and less-than-perfect fitness levels, neither side is likely to shut up shop. Our pick: over 3.5 goals.