Fiorentina vs Deportivo La Coruña: prediction and odds

The upcoming friendly at Fiorentina’s Viola Park training complex pits the Serie A side against Deportivo, a club gearing up for its return to Spain’s top flight. Notably, the Tuscan outfit has failed to win any of its last five meetings with La Liga representatives within regular time.

Lack of Balance

The 2025/26 campaign ranks among Fiorentina’s worst in the 21st century. A 15th‑place finish in Serie A and the first absence from European competition in four years forced a change. Paolo Vanoli saved the club from relegation but could not lift it to a higher level, so the board turned to the more promising Fabio Grosso, fresh from excellent work at Sassuolo. Under the new boss, the hosts have played five friendlies, losing only one, and the highlight is a thrilling 2‑2 draw with Real Madrid.

Rotation – with plenty of minutes for young reserves – has not stopped Grosso’s side from playing attractive, attack‑minded football that makes heavy use of the flanks. Yet balance remains elusive, and dangerous chances are regularly created at David de Gea’s goal. The two centre‑backs signed in the summer, Radu Drăgușin and Vieri, have not provided the desired stability. The standout performer so far is centre‑forward Roberto Piccoli, who has scored in each of the last three friendlies.

Substantial funds were invested in midfield: Arthur Atta from Udinese and Christ Inao Ulai from Trabzonspor together cost over €50 million. So far, only the Frenchman – already adapted to Serie A – has delivered, with the whole attacking game built around him. The Ivorian, delayed by World Cup commitments, returned from holiday later and has yet to reach peak fitness to effectively link defence and attack.

Unbeaten in Friendlies

The legendary Galician club returned to La Liga after an eight‑year absence, finishing second in last season’s Segunda División. The mastermind of that success, Antonio Hidalgo, remains in charge for the top‑flight challenge. In pre‑season, Deportivo have played four friendlies without a single defeat: wins over Lugo (1‑0) and Compostela (4‑0), plus draws with St. Pauli (2‑2) and Oviedo (0‑0).

Hidalgo is already adapting his style to the demands of survival in the elite. This summer, Deportivo have focused on a disciplined, pragmatic approach with a strong emphasis on defence. Given the relatively low‑calibre opposition, it is no surprise that the first goals conceded came only in the last friendly against St. Pauli.

The most eye‑catching signing is in attack: centre‑forward Pierre‑Emerick Aubameyang arrived from Marseille for just €1.5 million. The star veteran immediately proved his worth by scoring the winner against Lugo. The “blanquiazules” also added experienced goalkeeper Leo Román from Mallorca (well‑versed in La Liga), promising young centre‑back Bright Ede from Motor Lublin, and attacking midfielder Jonathan Asp Jensen from Bayern Munich. Special mention goes to Fiorentina youth product Lorenzo Amatucci, who has been highly effective at disrupting opponents’ play in the previous friendlies.

Predicted Lineups

Fiorentina (3‑5‑2): De Gea – Vieri, Drăgușin, Ranieri – Dodô, Atta, Ulai, Ndour, Fortini – Gudmundsson, Piccoli Unavailable: Parisi (injury) Head coach: Fabio Grosso

Deportivo (4‑2‑3‑1): Román – Tello, Ede, Comas, Quagliata – Amatucci, Villares – Cruz, Carreño, Hernández – Aubameyang Unavailable: Mella (injury) Head coach: Antonio Hidalgo

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Deportivo not to lose. The Galicians have a strong chance of a creditable performance in Florence. Fiorentina impressed against Real Madrid when the game was open, but Grosso’s men have struggled against classic low‑block defences. Moreover, the Tuscans regularly concede on the counter‑attack, and a clinical finisher like Aubameyang could exploit that. Deportivo have yet to lose a pre‑season match, and backing them to avoid defeat looks sensible.

Total goals prediction: Under 2.5. The disciplined defensive approach Antonio Hidalgo instills, minimising chances at his own goal, should keep this contest far from a goal‑fest. In two stylistically similar friendlies, Fiorentina scored only once each (1‑0 vs Gubbio and the same result vs Watford). Deportivo themselves have conceded just two goals across four friendlies. All signs point to a low‑scoring affair.