Genoa vs Sudtirol: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Genoa have yet to register a single victory in Serie A this season, with their only win so far coming in the Coppa Italia. In the round of 32 of that competition, the top-flight side face Südtirol, a team trying to shed their reputation as a second-division survival battler. Can the visitors make a statement against a club from the Italian elite?

Tactical Analysis: Genoa – Summer Reinforcements Yet to Click

Over the summer, Genoa did everything in their power to transform from a relegation-threatened outfit into a side aiming for at least a mid-table finish. The club retained their head coach and core squad while spending on new arrivals. However, the start to the new Serie A campaign has been far from ideal. In the first three matchdays, the Griffins suffered a 1–0 away loss to Lazio and home defeats against Napoli (2–0) and Como (4–1). It took until the fourth round for them to scrape a 1–1 draw with Frosinone.

The primary issue for Genoa at the start of the season has been a passive attack. Over the summer, the club brought in striker Milutin Osmajić from Preston and experienced midfielder Djibril Sow from Sevilla. Osmajić has scored only one inconsequential goal against Como, while Sow has managed just one assist. Lorenzo Colombo, meanwhile, has gone quiet and even missed a penalty in the most recent match. The main difficulty lies in creating chances. Across the first three rounds, Genoa players generated a meager 1.88 expected goals (xG) – the same total they produced in the single game against Frosinone. Yet even when they did carve out enough opportunities, the Griffins scored only once, indicating a finishing problem as well. Only in the Coppa Italia, against Serie B side Ascoli (4–1), did they manage to shed their attacking inhibitions.

Tactical Analysis: Südtirol – A New Coach and a Major Overhaul Spark a Rise

Südtirol, based in Bolzano, have typically been a mid-table Serie B side, more often fighting for survival than promotion. But this past summer, the club’s management undertook sweeping changes to accelerate progress. First, Davide Possanzini – a 50-year-old coach who previously worked with Roberto De Zerbi – was appointed head coach. Possanzini advocates a modern style of football, luring opponents out and searching for free spaces through possession. Such an approach requires specific types of players, so the squad was almost entirely rebuilt.

Currently, 11 new signings start in the first eleven. Yet the lack of chemistry has not hurt results: after four rounds, Südtirol remain unbeaten. At home, they dispatched Entella (2–0) and Catanzaro (1–0) in a very solid manner, and shared points with Modena (1–1). Away from home, the Reds held Benevento to a 1–1 draw. Possanzini’s football relies on patiently waiting for the “right” chances, making high conversion rates crucial. In that regard, Südtirol are doing well: they have scored five real goals from a combined 4.25 xG. Notably, in the Coppa Italia’s first round, Südtirol eliminated Catanzaro on penalties (2–2, 4–3 after spot kicks), again showing clinical finishing – two goals from just 0.97 xG.

Predicted Lineups

Genoa (3-5-2): Biel – Marcandalli, Ostigard, Vásquez – Ehizibue, Frendrup, Baldanzi, Sow, Ellertsson – Colombo, Osmajić Injured: Havel, Venturino Head coach: Daniele De Rossi

Südtirol (3-4-2-1): Pizzari – Stivanello, Giorgini, Stabile – Molina, Rispoli, Tronchin, Bjarkason – Lopes, Zeroli – Okoro Injured: El Kaouakibi, Pyyhtiä, Varnier Head coach: Davide Possanzini

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: In their match against Frosinone, De Rossi’s men finally showed intelligent attacking football, generated nearly two expected goals, and had genuine chances to win. That first point on the board should boost their confidence. Against a Serie B opponent, the Griffins have enough solidity – their 4–1 demolition of Ascoli proves the point. Also worth noting is Lorenzo Colombo, who will be extra motivated after his missed penalty. Südtirol, for their part, have made a pleasant impression, but only in home games. Away from home, they consistently concede and allow plenty of chances at their own end (a combined 3.31 xG against over two matches). In the Coppa Italia’s first round, the Reds let modest Catanzaro breach their defense twice. A top-flight side should have at least as many opportunities, so we back a Genoa win at 1.62.

Total prediction: Südtirol have not failed to score in any of their five official matches this season. Genoa concede an average of 1.8 goals per game, and even against a Serie B club, the Griffins could not keep a clean sheet. While the hosts are almost certain to find the net, the visitors will also have their chances. Therefore, both teams to score – Yes at 1.86 looks like a solid bet.