Hapoel Be'er Sheva vs Red Star: prediction and odds

In the third qualifying round of the UEFA Champions League, Israeli side Hapoel Be'er Sheva take on Serbian giants Crvena Zvezda. The first leg of this two-legged tie will be played on neutral ground in Hungary, stripping Ran Kozukh's men of the crucial home support that might have helped level the playing field. Can Hapoel Be'er Sheva stand up to the Serbian powerhouse away from home, or will Dejan Stanković's squad extend their winning streak to five matches?

Tactical Analysis: Hapoel Be'er Sheva – Character but Defensive Fragility

Hapoel Be'er Sheva’s pre-season preparations were a mixed bag: they beat Radomiak Radom 3-2, drew 2-2 with Omonia Nicosia, and lost 1-3 to Legia. These friendlies exposed glaring defensive issues, which became the main reason for their collapse in the first official match of the season—a 1-3 loss to Maccabi Tel Aviv in the Israeli Super Cup. Head coach Ran Kozukh admitted his team’s defensive performance was a failure.

Despite that, in the second qualifying round of the Champions League against Vikingur Reykjavik, Kozukh stuck with the same centre-back pairing. The result was predictable: Hapoel Be'er Sheva conceded two goals in the first leg, losing 1-2. In the return leg, the Israelis adjusted—compact defending and patient waiting for opponent errors paid off. Kozukh’s men finally played with defensive discipline, and in the second half, as the Icelanders faded physically, they capitalized on their chances. Zahi Ahmed opened the scoring in the 65th minute, and Amir Ganah doubled the lead in the 80th. The result was a 2-0 victory, securing a 3-2 aggregate win and progression to the third round. Now Hapoel Be'er Sheva must test that defensive discipline against Crvena Zvezda—a far more dangerous opponent than Vikingur Reykjavik.

Tactical Analysis: Crvena Zvezda – Early-Season Power on Display

Crvena Zvezda’s friendly matches were inconsistent—they won only one of four. But in official games, Stanković’s side has been firing on all cylinders. In the Serbian league, they first crushed modest Mačva 5-0, then confidently beat one of the Europa League contenders, Vojvodina, 3-1. Notably, Vasilije Kostov and Bruno Duarte have been in superb form, contributing to six goals between them.

On the European stage, the team has been equally dominant. In the previous Champions League qualifying round against Northern Irish side Larne, Crvena Zvezda enjoyed total control, holding over 70% possession and firing 47 shots (27 on target) compared to Larne’s 2 (0). The aggregate score was 9-0. Star signing Marko Arnautović scored his first goals for the club in the return leg, starting in place of Bruno Duarte and bagging a brace. Given the red-hot form of their attacking players, Hapoel Be'er Sheva’s leaky defence faces a monumental challenge.

Predicted Lineups

Hapoel Be'er Sheva (4-3-3): Marciano – Mizrahi, Vitor, Diop, Baltaxa – Yehochua, Ventura, Peretz – Ist, Zlatanović, Ahmed

Out: Bitton, Victor (both injured)

Head coach: Ran Kozukh

Crvena Zvezda (4-3-3): Mateus – Seol, Gudelj, Eraković, Tiknizyan – Lois, Fani, Elšnik – Kostov, Bruno Duarte, Ivanić

Out: Avdić (injured)

Head coach: Dejan Stanković

Referee: Jesús Gil Manzano (Spain)

The Spanish official has no tolerance for rough play and actively uses cards to maintain order on the pitch. Last season, he averaged 4 yellow cards, 0.27 red cards, and 0.39 penalties per game. Manzano also boasts extensive Champions League experience, having officiated dozens of matches—averaging 3.75 yellows, 0.08 reds, and 0.37 penalties per game in Europe’s elite competition.

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Crvena Zvezda to win at odds of 1.90

Crvena Zvezda have stormed into the new season with both feet. The team plays an aggressive attacking style and simply sweeps opponents aside. Four consecutive wins with a combined score of 17-1 are clear proof of that. In contrast, Hapoel Be'er Sheva are far from their best form. The club has struggled to fix its defensive issues, conceding three goals to Maccabi Tel Aviv in the Super Cup and two to Vikingur Reykjavik in the first leg of the second qualifying round. Moreover, one of their midfield leaders, Kings Kangwa (2 goals, 1 assist in three matches this season), recently left for Panathinaikos. On top of that, the Israelis are forced to play on neutral ground, losing the advantage of home support. Based on all this, backing Crvena Zvezda to win at 1.90 is the call.

Prediction on totals: Crvena Zvezda team total over 1.5 goals at odds of 1.76

Despite keeping a clean sheet in their last match, Hapoel Be'er Sheva’s defence remains highly vulnerable. Before that, the club had conceded at least two goals in five consecutive matches—though none of those opponents were of Crvena Zvezda’s caliber. Meanwhile, the Serbs maintain high scoring output, and with Arnautović’s arrival, their attack has become even more monstrous. Statistics back this up: 17 goals in four official matches (an average of 4.25 per game). We believe Stanković’s men will have no trouble breaking down the opponent’s defence. Our pick: Crvena Zvezda team total over 1.5 goals at 1.76.