Hradec Králové vs Beşiktaş: prediction and odds

Hradec Králové have made history by reaching European competition for the first time in the 21st century, but they have already proven they are not content to play the role of passengers. The Czech club overcame the second qualifying round of the Europa League as clear underdogs, and now face the daunting test of Beşiktaş. Can the hosts stand up to the 16-time Turkish champions?

Hradec Králové Reaching New Heights

David Horejš's charges displayed remarkable composure in the previous qualifying round, especially for a team tasting international football for the first time. The side defeated Tromsø twice (1:0, 3:1), managing just four shots on target across both legs. All goals bar the first came from headers following deliveries from wide areas. Michal Van Buren registered a goal and two assists, but goalkeeper Adam Zadražil deserves special mention after making 11 saves, one of which was from the penalty spot.

The shot-stopper was also the standout performer in the second league match against Bohemians (0:0). Prior to that, Hradec had edged past Pardubice (2:1), once again extracting maximum value from limited chances at the opposition's goal. The club retained their core squad over the summer, which has underpinned such a lively start to the campaign. New signing Adam Slončík has slotted in nicely, scoring the winning goal in the return leg against Tromsø. Experienced midfielder Tomáš Petrášek has recovered from injury, but the coaching staff will likely keep faith with the centre-back trio that delivered success in the previous stage.

An Inconsistent Beşiktaş

The Black-and-Whites were drawn against Midtjylland, one of the strongest sides from last season's Europa League league phase, in their qualifying tie. Despite the 3:0 aggregate scoreline, the Turkish outfit looked far from convincing. All their goals came while enjoying a numerical advantage. In Istanbul, the opposition were reduced to ten men as early as the 15th minute. At half-time in the return leg, Beşiktaş trailed 4:13 on shots and only seized control after the Danish defender received a second yellow card. Had the opponent's nerves held, things could have unfolded very differently.

This only adds to the scepticism surrounding their pre-season, which yielded unsatisfactory results: the Turks played friendlies against ostensibly weaker opposition yet managed to win just one of five. The club have strengthened with Leandro Trossard, a Champions League finalist, but the Belgian has only just returned from holiday. It is unlikely he will make his debut in Králové. Wilfred Ndidi, who missed the start of the European campaign through injury, has recently returned to training. It is possible the holding midfielder, who played a key role under Vincenzo Italiano's predecessor, will start from the first minute in place of Salih Özcan.

Predicted Lineups for Hradec Králové – Beşiktaş

Hradec Králové (3-4-2-1): Zadražil – Čihák, Ugrinčat, Čech – Kučera, Dancák, Darida, Horák – Van Buren, Slončík – Mihálik

Unavailable: Petrášek (injury)

Head coach: David Horejš

Beşiktaş (4-3-3): Nübel – Murillo, Djalo, Topçu, R. Yılmaz – Kekçü, S. Özcan, Olaitan – Çerny, O, Fakili

Unavailable: Al-Musrati, Onana, Ricardo, João Mário (all not registered), Trossard (doubtful)

Head coach: Vincenzo Italiano

Referee: Horațiu Feșnic (Romania)

Feșnic is strict both domestically and on the international stage. In the Romanian league, he averages 4.93 yellow cards per game and records 30.55 fouls, while his figures across 20 European matches stand at 4.7 and 30.5 respectively. Both teams should be prepared for almost every duel to be settled by the whistle.

Prediction for Hradec Králové – Beşiktaş: Hradec Králové not to lose at 1.90

Main prediction: Beşiktaş's pre-season form and their display in the previous round do not convince that they are clear favourites for this tie. Yes, they managed to beat Midtjylland twice, and on paper the Norwegians are stronger than their current opponents, but in equal numbers the Turks showed nothing. Recall that last season they lost to Lausanne (1:2 on aggregate) in the Conference League qualifiers, and the squad has not improved in quality since. Horejš's side, meanwhile, showed themselves in the best light against Tromsø – making the most of their chances while the goalkeeper provided a safety net at the back. The Czechs feel no pressure over the result, and the backing of the home crowd should loosen them up even further. For the visitors, a draw, for instance, would not be a tragedy either, with the return leg at home still to come. We back Hradec not to lose at 1.90.

Goals prediction: The hosts have shown lethal finishing at the start of the season – in the two matches against Tromsø, they managed just four shots on target, yet all were converted. In the league they have scored twice from 1.93 xG (expected goals). The Black-and-Whites, despite their unremarkable play, have scored in five of seven matches under Italiano (including friendlies). The higher class of their players should surely tell. Our pick: both teams to score – yes at 1.73.