Jablonec vs RFS: prediction and odds

Two clubs from opposite corners of Europe meet in Jablonec as the Czech hosts welcome Latvian champions RFS in the first leg of the UEFA Conference League third qualifying round. The home side enter this contest as firm favourites, yet the visitors from Riga have repeatedly demonstrated an ability to spring surprises on the continental stage and walk away with a result even when playing away against more decorated opposition.

Jablonec: Return to European Competition and a Commanding Home Record

The Czech outfit arrive in strong playing form. In the current European campaign, Jablonec navigated past Croatian side Varazdin with a 4:3 aggregate scoreline. The first leg saw the Czechs fall to a 2:3 defeat, but a confident 2:0 home victory in the return fixture secured progression. Their recent home results make for impressive reading: victories over Sigma Olomouc (2:1), Kharkiv (1:0) and Osnabrück (1:0), alongside a goalless draw with Pafos (0:0). Notably, the team rarely leaves their own ground without finding the back of the net.

Jablonec did not participate in European competition during the 2024/25 season. However, a fifth-place finish in the previous Czech top-flight campaign earned them a spot in the Conference League qualifiers. The club has prior experience of group-stage football in both the Europa League and the Conference League, so returning to the European stage is hardly a novelty for them. There is one significant absence, though: striker Kevin-Prince Milla (28 appearances, four goals last season) will not feature. Losing the forward does dent their attacking output somewhat, yet the depth of the squad and overall quality should compensate for that blow.

RFS: An Ambitious Latvian Collective with Serious European Credentials

RFS have sailed through the opening rounds of this qualification. They brushed aside Glentoran 4:1 on aggregate in the first qualifying round of the Conference League and then dispatched Icelandic side Vestri with ease, winning 5:1 over the two legs. Beyond Europe, the Latvian champions have been producing steady results in their domestic league, regularly winning and scoring. Their away form holds up well: triumphs over Tukums, Jelgava and Liepaja, in addition to their continental successes, underline a side comfortable playing away from home. The Latvians are adept at sitting deep and hitting on the break, making them an awkward opponent for any team.

RFS reached the league phase of the Europa League in the 2024/25 campaign after successfully navigating Champions League qualification – a considerable achievement for a club from Latvia. In 2025/26 they were once again involved in European competition. Their continental experience at this stage of the tournament is richer than that of most rivals they face. That said, they will be missing key forward Diomande (18 matches, seven goals and two assists last season) for the upcoming tie. The absence of their main striker considerably weakens the visitors' attacking threat and diminishes their chances of posing a genuine danger to the Jablonec goal.

Referee: Nathan Verboomen (Belgium)

The Belgian official took charge of 27 matches in the 2025/26 season, brandishing 114 yellow cards (an average of 4.22 per game), seven red cards and awarding seven penalties. In the current 2026/27 campaign, he has already shown four yellows and one red in a single Conference League qualifying fixture. The referee's high card count raises the likelihood of a tense, fragmented contest punctuated by frequent stoppages.

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Jablonec to win at odds of 1.78. The hosts boast excellent home form and have just dispatched Varazdin (4:3 on aggregate), winning the home leg 2:0. The level of opposition Jablonec faced in the previous round was higher – the Croatian club is noticeably stronger than the sides RFS have encountered. Without key forward Diomande (seven goals last season), the Latvians lose sharpness in front of goal, while the Czech outfit, even minus Milla, retain their structure and control. RFS possess solid European experience, but translating that into a result away from home against an organised Czech side will be a tall order. The probability of a home win is assessed at 58% (anything above 1.72 is considered playable).

Total goals prediction: Over 2.5 at odds of 2.02. Both teams have shown open, attacking football on their European journeys so far. Jablonec produced seven goals across their two matches against Varazdin (2:3 and 2:0), and they score consistently at home – six goals in their last four home fixtures across all competitions. RFS regularly create chances in both the qualifiers and the Latvian league, netting nine times in their last five matches. The defences on both sides are far from watertight and tend to make errors, particularly under the heightened intensity of a third-round tie. The official's proactive officiating style should only contribute to a more open game. The probability of this outcome is estimated at 50% (anything above 2.00 is considered playable).