Maccabi Tel Aviv vs CSKA Sofia: prediction and odds

In the third qualifying round of the Europa League, Maccabi Tel Aviv will host CSKA Sofia on neutral ground in Batumi, Georgia. This is not the only piece of bad news for the Israelis—UEFA recently decided to punish the club after fans used pyrotechnics during the home match of the second qualifying round against Sheriff, ordering the game to be played behind closed doors. Will the absence of supporters in the stands help the Bulgarians contain the attack of the favorites?

Tactical Analysis: Maccabi Tel Aviv

The Israelis have managed to approach the official matches in peak form. In the opening game, Maccabi Tel Aviv confidently defeated Hapoel Be'er Sheva 3-1 in the Super Cup final, scoring the third goal while a man down—a clear sign of the team's excellent physical preparation. In the Europa League qualifiers, Kenny Miller's side settled all questions in the first leg against Sheriff, crushing the opposition away from home with a 5-0 victory, thanks to lightning-fast counterattacks and clinical finishing. They then pragmatically and in an energy-saving mode saw out a clean 1-0 win in the return leg. The standout star of these three matches has been striker Saed Abu Farhi, who netted four goals, while on the right flank, Sagiv Yehezkel has consistently provided high energy, contributing one goal and three assists.

Ahead of the third qualifying round duel, Miller emphasized that CSKA Sofia surpasses previous opponents in class and aggression, meaning his players face an even tougher test. The situation is further complicated by the venue factor: the nominally home match on neutral ground in Batumi will be played in front of completely empty stands.

Tactical Analysis: CSKA Sofia

CSKA Sofia's European qualifying campaign under Hristo Yanev has demonstrated tactical flexibility. In the first round against Derry City (3-2, 2-1), the team relied on fast-paced football with constant pressure on the flanks. Against the stronger Qarabag (0-0, 0-0, 5-4 on penalties), CSKA Sofia endured prolonged pressure in a low block but did not avoid dangerous moments in front of their own goal. Goalkeeper Lapoukhov played a key role, making several crucial saves and stopping one penalty in the shootout.

The coaching staff has also managed the players' physical condition wisely. In the last round of the Bulgarian championship against Dunav Ruse (2-1), Yanev rotated the squad, keeping key performers fresh: Stefano Sensi, Jean-Philippe Gbamen, and main striker Ioannis Pittas (four goals at the start of the season) only came on in the second half. CSKA Sofia approaches the match against Maccabi Tel Aviv without any injuries, but the Bulgarians will be playing their third match in eight days, one of which went to 120 minutes.

Predicted Lineups

Maccabi Tel Aviv (4-3-3): Melika – Ben Harush, Camara, Shlomo, Revivo – Shahar, Sissoko, Peretz – Yehezkel, Abu Farhi, Varela

Unavailable: Gropper, Belić, Layous, Nicolás (all injured)

Head Coach: Kenny Miller

CSKA Sofia (4-4-2): Lapoukhov – Pastor, Rodríguez, Ivanov, Martino – Ebong, Gbamen, Jordão, Sensi – Godoy, Pittas

Unavailable: None

Head Coach: Hristo Yanev

Referee: Manfredas Lukjančukas (Lithuania)

A strict referee who frequently resorts to issuing cautions. Lukjančukas averages 4.56 yellow cards per match and sends a player off or awards a penalty in roughly every third game. In European competitions, he is even harsher, averaging 4.61 yellow cards per match and one red card every 2.5 games.

Prediction and Bet

Main Prediction: Maccabi Tel Aviv to win at odds of 1.97

Despite the match being played without spectators, Maccabi Tel Aviv remains the favorite for this encounter. The club is on a phenomenal run, having won three consecutive official matches with a combined score of 9-1, and their attack, led by Abu Farhi (four goals), looks unstoppable. CSKA Sofia, on the other hand, relies on defensive solidity, but their attacking potential raises questions: in their last five matches, the team has left the pitch without scoring three times. Additionally, the visitors' possible fatigue cannot be discounted. We believe that due to superior efficiency, the hosts will secure the victory. Our pick: Maccabi Tel Aviv to win at odds of 1.97.

Total Goals Prediction: Under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.84

In the previous qualifying round, CSKA Sofia focused on a solid defensive performance, which led to two low-scoring games. It is unlikely that the Bulgarians will change their tactics against a more skilled opponent. Maccabi Tel Aviv also understands that underestimating the opposition is not an option and will likely play pragmatically, as they did in the last match against Sheriff, where fans saw only one goal. We take under 2.5 goals at odds of 1.84.