Thun vs Víkingur Reykjavík: prediction and odds

The 2026/27 Champions League season will go on without the champions of Switzerland and Iceland, who have already been eliminated from the elite competition's qualifying rounds and are now battling for a spot in the Europa League. Thun, under new management, are stumbling through the start of their domestic campaign and will be without their captain for the upcoming clash. Vikingur Reykjavik, meanwhile, have been punished for their passive approach on the road. Will the Vikings change their tactics to overcome a more established opponent?

Tactical Analysis: Thun

Thun were one of the surprise packages of European football last season. Freshly promoted from the Swiss second division, they immediately stormed to the top-flight title. After 20 years, the club returned to the Champions League, but have already lost their place in the main tournament. This summer, head coach Mauro Lustrinelli unexpectedly left his post, and Gian-Luca Privitelli was hastily appointed as his replacement. The chemistry, however, had already been lost. The previous coach implemented a romantic and daring style of play; the new boss emphasizes pragmatism and discipline. This shift has been compounded by major squad changes.

The club signed central defender Nicolas Bürgy, midfielder Nasim Zoukit, and striker Furkan Dursun. Integrating new arrivals takes time, a luxury Thun did not have. In three friendlies, Thun managed only one win. They then failed to overcome Dinamo Zagreb (1-1, 2-2), losing in extra time after two draws. In both matches, the Red-and-Whites were outdone in expected goals (3.92 xG against 2.03 xG), saw less of the ball, and squandered a comfortable 2-0 lead in the return leg. The most painful blow was the loss of key centre-back Marco Bürki to suspension after the second leg in Zagreb. To make matters worse, Thun suffered a humiliating 6-0 thrashing at home by Young Boys in the league.

Tactical Analysis: Vikingur Reykjavik

The Icelandic league was in full swing when the new Champions League campaign began, meaning Vikingur entered the European fray in peak physical condition. Domestically, the club leads the table by a wide margin, boasting the most reliable defence and the second-best attack. In Champions League qualifying, the Vikings also started brightly, knocking out Hungarian side Győr (1-0, 2-2) as underdogs. In the first leg of the second round, they defeated Israeli side Hapoel Be'er Sheva (1-0). On both home occasions, the Icelanders locked down their opponents, allowing them nothing, then ground out results late on, showing character after the 80th minute.

However, their away form tells a completely different story. Against Győr, they lost the expected goals battle (1.27 xG vs. 2.20 xG) and managed only two shots on target, somehow converting both. Against the Israeli side, they were again without the ball and failed to increase their number of dangerous chances, this time failing to score—though they felt they should have had a penalty in stoppage time. Notably, on the weekend, the coaching staff did not rest most of their starters. Vikingur could only draw 2-2 with Akranes, indicating a shortage of resources, as domestic slip-ups have coincided with the start of European commitments.

Predicted Lineups

Thun (4-4-2): Steffen – Fehr, Bamert, Bürgy, Heule – Reichmuth, Roth, Zoukit, Matoshi – Dursun, Labo

Unavailable: Montolio, Kyei (both injured), Bürki (suspended)

Head coach: Gian-Luca Privitelli

Vikingur Reykjavik (4-3-3): Fridriksson – Gunnarsson, Erkot, Vatnhamar, Gudjonsson – Sigurdsson, Hafsteinsson, Ibrahimajic – Borgthorsson, Thortharson, Ingisundarson

Unavailable: Jónsson (illness), Ómarsson (not in squad)

Head coach: Solvi Ottesen

Referee

Georgi Kruashvili of Georgia will take charge. In 2025, the Georgian official oversaw 22 competitive matches and established a reputation as a strict referee. On average per game, Kruashvili recorded 25 fouls and handed out 4.33 yellow cards. Moreover, during this period, he sent off players 14 times.

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Vikingur are formidable at home, but on the road, that power evaporates. In two away Champions League qualifying matches, the team surrendered possession and relied on counter-attacks. They got lucky against Győr, scoring from two shots on target, but that luck ran out against Hapoel. The Vikings are also missing their key goalscorers. Elías Már Ómarsson, the second top scorer in the Icelandic league, is not in the squad, while Óskar Borgthorsson (third top scorer in Iceland) has failed to score in four Champions League games. Thun, fresh off that embarrassing 6-0 league defeat, will be desperate to make amends. Even accounting for their elimination by Dinamo, the Swiss side created 2.03 expected goals over two matches and scored three times, showcasing decent attacking output. Vikingur lack depth, and the coaching staff is starting to rotate the squad, which affects performance. For these reasons, we back a confident Thun victory with a -1.5 handicap at odds of 1.95.

Goal prediction: Thun have kept a clean sheet in none of their four official matches this season, conceding 10 goals (an average of 2.5 per game in regulation time). Vikingur have shipped four goals in their two away Champions League ties. The hosts are without their star centre-back and captain Bürki, while the visitors constantly drop deep into their own box on the road. With these factors in mind, betting on both teams to score – yes at 1.62 is the sensible play.