Tokyo vs Borussia Dortmund: prediction and odds

The Japanese tour of Borussia Dortmund is drawing to a close, with the final test being a friendly match against FC Tokyo on a 67,000-seat stadium. The German club boasts a massive fan base in Japan, so a full house is guaranteed. Can both teams deliver an exciting performance and delight the supporters?

Tokyo on the Rise

Under the guidance of Rikizo Matsuhashi, Tokyo matched their best-ever result in the J-League's eastern conference last season, finishing second. However, they ultimately missed out on medals, losing to Cerezo Osaka in the playoffs (1-3, 2-2).

That success came at a price: in early July, Tokyo sold their brightest prospect, 19-year-old Ryunosuke Sato (6 goals and 1 assist in 19 league matches last season), to Valencia for a club-record €3 million. To fill his position, they brought in the more experienced Nicolai Vallys – one of the most prominent players in the Danish Superliga, who also shone in the Conference League qualifiers (10 goals and 8 assists in his previous 38 appearances for Brøndby). Tokyo also strengthened their right flank by signing Hirokazu Ishihara and added versatile midfielder Shion Homma.

Even though the J-League season kicks off in just a week, the capital club has played only two friendlies during the preseason. First, they surprisingly lost 1-2 to Montedio Yamagata (a second-division side), then beat Nagoya – the sixth-strongest team from last season's championship – by the same score. Both matches were played in a three-period format of 45 minutes each, ensuring all players got game time. The only absentee due to injury is Kashif Banguraganade, but he is already the third-choice left-back.

Borussia in Reduced Squad

The Bundesliga runners-up have played three friendlies against clearly weaker opponents, recording just one win and two losses. These results should not be taken too seriously, as the matches featured mostly young players. The core of the team was either resting or recovering from injuries after the World Cup.

Dortmund plans to significantly overhaul their attacking line. Julian Brandt and Karim Adeyemi, who consistently produced double-digit goal contributions last season, are on their way out. The club is focusing on signing young prospects: Justin Lerma already scored his first goal in a friendly against Rot-Weiss (3-1). New signing Joan Gadou – a 19-year-old center-back bought from Salzburg – has a strong chance of becoming a starter. He was the only Dortmund outfield player to complete all 90 minutes against Cerezo Osaka (0-1) in 30°C heat and over 70% humidity. Similar conditions await the team in Tokyo.

Several players have returned from World Cup leave: Waldemar Anton, Daniel Svensson, Felix Nmecha, Carney Chukwuemeka, and Maximilian Bayer. They were not in the squad for the last match, but they might finally get some minutes at the end of the tour. However, Gregor Kobel, Nico Schlotterbeck, Julian Ryerson, and Rami Bensebaini did not travel to the training camp for various reasons. That's almost the entire first-choice defensive line plus the goalkeeper. Local fans are sure to be delighted by the appearance of their countryman Takato Yamamoto – the coaching staff has been actively giving him playing time this preseason.

Predicted Lineups

Tokyo (4-4-2): Tanaka – Muraya, Scholz, Inamura, Hashimoto – K. Sato, Ko, Tokiwa, Vallys – Ryan, Nagakura

Out: Banguraganade (injury)

Head coach: Rikizo Matsuhashi

Borussia Dortmund (3-4-2-1): Meyer – Redjani, Gadou, Mane – Couto, Job, Yamamoto, Kabar – Inacio, Lerma – Silva

Out: Ryerson, Schlotterbeck, Can, Prates (all injured), Kobel, Bensebaini, Sabitzer (all not in the squad)

Head coach: Niko Kovac

Prediction and Bet

Dortmund looked mediocre against Osaka: just one shot on target and 0.74 xG (expected goals). For comparison, their opponents had four shots on target and 0.81 xG. It's possible that the Dortmund squad will be reinforced by World Cup participants, but how much playing time they will get is unknown. In any case, they will find it difficult to immediately perform in the hot and humid Japanese climate. The hosts are undoubtedly better adapted to such conditions. Moreover, Tokyo played their last friendly at the beginning of last week, while Dortmund played on Wednesday. With fresher legs and a squad closer to their first choice, the Tokyo side can certainly give their opponents a fight and, at the very least, avoid defeat. We suggest this option: Tokyo not to lose at odds of 2.18.

Total Goals Prediction: The exhibition and commercial nature of the match does not guarantee a goal-fest. We saw this in Dortmund's game against Osaka, where there were very few dangerous moments. Tokyo is a team of a similar level, so breaking down their defense will also be challenging. In each of the two summer friendlies involving the hosts, fans saw three goals, even though those matches lasted 135 minutes instead of 90. The heat also does not favor a high tempo. We'll take under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.87.