Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Mainz: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

For the second time in the club’s history, Borussia Mönchengladbach have come away empty-handed from their opening three Bundesliga fixtures. The low point came in the last round, a humiliating 5-0 thrashing at the hands of Freiburg, a result that prompted the board to part ways with head coach Eugen Polanski. Mainz, meanwhile, are not exactly in high spirits either. After beginning the campaign with two games without defeat, Urs Fischer’s side fell to Eintracht Frankfurt last time out.

Tactical Analysis: Borussia Mönchengladbach

Defensive fragility has been the hallmark of Gladbach’s disastrous start. Eugen Polanski became the first coaching casualty of the new season, and the reason is plain: a woeful opening to the championship that leaves the club second-from-bottom in the table. The 5-0 defeat to Freiburg left the board no choice, and it is worth noting that the result was entirely merited. Even before Kleindienst’s red card early in the second half, the team had already shipped two goals and failed to register a single shot on target.

The Foals are desperately short of defensive solidity. No side in the Bundesliga has conceded more goals from counter-attacks than Gladbach (2), while a further three have come directly from losing possession. Moreover, the team’s lack of concentration just outside their own box is highlighted by the three goals they have allowed from long-range strikes. The switch to a back four, announced before the season, has backfired spectacularly: 12 goals conceded in three matches is the worst defensive record in the club’s history.

The numbers paint a grim picture. Gladbach have allowed opponents 30 shots on target – the highest total in the league – and their expected goals against (xGA) of 8.91 is only bettered by Stuttgart’s 9.69. Attack has also been blunt: just 3.7 xG (expected goals) over three games and only three goals scored. The forward line will be further weakened by Kleindienst’s suspension following his red card.

Tactical Analysis: Mainz

Mainz had reason to be satisfied with their start after the first two matchdays. Although they failed to take maximum points against Paderborn (0-0), they outperformed their opponents in terms of xG (1.23 to 0.73). Then Fischer’s men dismantled Hamburg away from home 5-0, dominating the shot count (8 on target to 1) and xG (2.78 to 0.32).

The defeat to Eintracht in the last round was a setback, but once again Mainz showed quality, outshooting their hosts 18-11 and leading xG 2.12 to 2.04. That match saw the team concede their first goals of the Bundesliga campaign, yet their defensive solidity remains impressive. Over three rounds, only Bayern Munich and Bayer Leverkusen have allowed fewer than Mainz’s 27 shots on their goal. Furthermore, their dominance in the air is notable: opponents have attempted just three headed efforts against them.

Away form is no concern for Fischer’s side. Mainz have not lost any of their last seven Bundesliga road trips, winning five of them. The only potential worry is an injury to goalkeeper Zentner, who could miss the match, but Robin Zentner’s deputy, Schwolow, kept a clean sheet against Hamburg in the second round and is a reliable alternative.

Predicted Lineups

Borussia Mönchengladbach (4-4-2): Nicolas – Scally, Itakura, Dix, Herold – Honorat, Sander, Stöger, Mohya – Bolin, Liedberg Unavailable: Kastrop, Konoplya, Kühn, Leopold (all injured), Kleindienst (suspended), Hasioka (doubtful) Interim head coach: Jan-Moritz Lichte

Mainz (3-5-2): Schwolow – Posch, Grubber, Potulski – Caci, Amiri, Sano, Lee, Mwene – Becker, Tietz Unavailable: Zentner, Kohr, Silas, Widmer (all injured), Martel, Nebel (both doubtful) Head coach: Urs Fischer

Referee: Robert Hartmann

Robert Hartmann is not a referee prone to flashy decisions or excessive strictness. In his last 20 Bundesliga matches, he has averaged 3.2 yellow cards per game and called 23.65 fouls per contest. Over that same stretch, he has sent off a player just twice and awarded a penalty on six occasions.

Prediction and Bet

Mainz to win at odds of 2.26 – Gladbach are in deep trouble: three defeats from three, no head coach, and a demoralising 5-0 loss to Freiburg in their last outing. Mainz, by contrast, have begun the season more confidently and boast an excellent away record – a seven-match unbeaten run in the Bundesliga with five wins and two draws. Backing Fischer’s side to take all three points looks the smart play.

Gladbach under 1.5 team goals at 1.70 – The hosts have been toothless in attack, scoring just three times, accumulating only 3.7 xG, and managing a mere 10 shots on target all season. To make matters worse, they have lost top scorer Kleindienst to suspension. In their last five meetings, Gladbach have never scored more than one goal against Mainz. Fischer’s men, meanwhile, boast one of the best defensive records in the league, with two clean sheets in their first three matches and an xGA of just 3.04. Expect the visitors to keep the home attack quiet.