Denmark vs Portugal: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Denmark are back in the hunt after their opening defeat to Norway (2–3) by brushing aside Wales (2–0), but the next challenge is the reigning Nations League champion. Portugal under Jorge Jesus have collected six points from two matches, yet those two victories were very different in character. For the hosts, this fixture is a chance to catch up and keep the fight for top spot alive; for the visitors, it is an opportunity to build a clear lead and cement the momentum from a strong start.

Denmark – dangerous going forward, vulnerable after losing possession

The first two rounds have shown that Denmark can consistently create threats in attack, but they remain unstable when they do not have the ball. In Norway (2–3), the Danes fought back from 2–0 down with goals from Damsgaard and Højlund, yet they suffered from quick transitions down the flanks and could not contain Haaland. Against Wales (2–0), the team looked more solid without possession and made the most of their advantage, helped by a goal from Isaksen. The attack does not rely on a single player, but the main weakness is still there: after losing the ball, the Danes do not always reorganise quickly enough, leaving space for the opponent to launch swift counterattacks.

Against Portugal, the coaching staff will probably opt for a more cautious approach without the ball. Denmark will try to close down the centre more tightly, avoid committing too many players forward at once, and steer the visitors’ attacks towards the flanks, where space is easier to restrict. Once they win the ball, the pattern should change sharply: the hosts can quickly feed Damsgaard and look for Højlund running in behind the defence. This approach makes sense given what happened in the first two matches – Denmark looked most dangerous when advancing quickly, but struggled when they allowed the opponent space after their own turnovers.

Injury problems narrow the options for such a plan, and emergency call‑ups only mask the issues. Without Andreas Christensen, the quality of the first pass out of defence suffers, and the loss of Bah is simply irreplaceable: the hastily called‑up Anton Gaaei remains only a reserve option. The absence of Dorgu robs the team of pace on the flank. Dolberg and Grønbæk have also left the national‑team camp. Riemer has called up Skov Olsen and Nartey, but the attack still lacks well‑drilled combinations and alternatives. With a third match in eight days, this lack of depth becomes especially critical.

Portugal – learning to win in different ways

Portugal have taken six points from two matches, but those first games simultaneously revealed the strengths and weaknesses of Jesus’s side. Against Wales (1–0), the Portuguese pressed aggressively without the ball, pinned the opponent in their own half for long periods, and regularly reached dangerous areas, but wastefulness in front of goal kept the result uncertain until the end. In Norway (2–1), the script was reversed: Portugal spent long spells defending and created only 0.87 xG (expected goals) against 2.87 xG for the Scandinavians. Yet the visitors were able to exploit space for quick attacks, and Félix again found himself in the right spot, scoring in a second consecutive match. Under the new coach, Portugal have not yet achieved consistent control of matches against strong opponents, but they have already shown an important quality – the ability to threaten both through sustained pressure and in fast breaks.

Jesus has abandoned the use of three central midfielders. Instead, he prefers a combination of one holding midfielder and a player closer to the striker. This makes Félix and Bruno Fernandes crucial: the former looks for pockets of space in front of the box, while the latter drifts inside from the flank in possession to help build attacks. Through these movements, Portugal can create numerical advantages in midfield. Against Denmark that is especially important, because the hosts have already shown problems with gaps between their lines.

The depth of the squad gives Jesus extra flexibility. Bruno Fernandes has recovered and is training without restrictions. There is also competition up front: after starting Ronaldo against Wales, the coach left him on the bench for the entire match in Oslo, and Ramos – who got the nod – scored the winner. The choice of the “number nine” thus becomes part of the game plan: with Ronaldo, Portugal gain a clearer focal point in the box and can look for him more often with finishing passes; with Ramos, there is more movement up front and more activity without the ball.

Predicted lineups for Denmark vs Portugal

Denmark (4‑2‑3‑1): Jørgensen – R. Christensen, Andersen, Vestergaard, Mæhle – Jensen, Højbjerg – Isaksen, Damsgaard, Daramy – Højlund

Unavailable: A. Christensen, Dorgu, Dolberg, Grønbæk, Stage, Osula, Jensen, Nørgaard (all injured), Eriksen (not in the squad)

Head coach: Brian Riemer

Portugal (4‑1‑3‑2): Diogo Costa – Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes – R. Neves – Trincão, Vitinha, B. Fernandes – Félix, Ronaldo

Unavailable: A. Silva, Nunes, Semedo, Samu Costa, Guedes (all not in the squad), Conceição (doubtful)

Head coach: Jorge Jesus

Referee: Mykola Balakin (Ukraine)

At international level, this official is not known for leniency. Since 2023, in matches involving national teams, Balakin has averaged 4.5 yellow cards per game. The Ukrainian is particularly strict on home sides: in only one of his six matches in that period did the away team receive more yellow cards than the hosts.

Prediction and bet on Denmark vs Portugal

Main prediction: Portugal to win @ 2.08 Portugal are well equipped precisely for the situations that have already caused problems for Denmark. In the match against Norway, the hosts struggled to defend after losing possession, and Jesus has plenty of fast players to exploit the free space immediately. The injury problems further restrict Riemer’s options in every department, whereas Portugal’s squad depth allows them to maintain a high tempo through substitutions. With this being the third match in eight days, that advantage is likely to show after the interval. The head‑to‑head record adds weight: the Scandinavians have lost four of their last five meetings. Therefore, back Portugal to win at 2.08.

Prediction on totals: Portugal over 1.5 goals @ 1.90 Denmark conceded three goals against Norway, and they particularly struggled to handle quick counterattacks after their own turnovers. Those are exactly the kind of situations Portugal thrive on: Félix constantly looks for space between the lines and has scored in both opening rounds. The situation is made worse for the hosts by the absence of Andreas Christensen – without him, the quality of the first pass out of defence drops, meaning a higher risk of losing the ball near their own goal. Moreover, Jesus’s side have shown they can score both through sustained pressure and through more straightforward fast attacks. So take the bet on Portugal’s individual total over 1.5 at 1.90.