Germany vs Serbia: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Germany suffered a historic first defeat to Greece (0:1), and now the national team is desperate to make amends in front of their home supporters against another Balkan side. Serbia, meanwhile, have lost all four matches against top-20 ranked FIFA opponents under Veljko Paunović, making them the perfect opponents for the Germans to get back on track.

A Rocky Start for Klopp

Jürgen Klopp arrived as the most successful German coach of the 21st century, billed as the man who could restore order to the national team. So far, however, the celebrated tactician is still searching for a working formula, registering zero wins in his two matches in charge. Against a Netherlands side of comparable quality, the Bundestimar were outperformed by their opponents (1.43 xG against 3.2 xG – expected goals), yet still managed to grind out a 1:1 draw. But in the clash with a much more modest Greek outfit, Germany left empty-handed due to the ineffectiveness of their own positional attack. The hosts enjoyed 76% possession but created even fewer chances than in the first round (1.29 xG). After that defeat, Klopp openly admitted that his team has yet to develop reliable mechanisms for breaking down a low block. This is particularly relevant ahead of the Serbia game: the coach himself expects the visitors to defend deep once again.

The experimentation will continue in the third round, and the Germans will take to the pitch against Serbia with an entirely new-look XI. Klopp initially split his large 44-man squad into two groups, and the second batch will now get its chance against the Balkan team. At the Allianz Arena, we won't see Joshua Kimmich, Karim Adeyemi, Jonathan Tah, Nathaniel Brown, or Felix Nmecha, who have completed their part of the camp, along with the injured Jamal Musiala and Kai Havertz. Joining the squad are David Raum, Maximilian Mittelstädt, Waldemar Anton, Lennart Kahl, and Aleksandar Pavlović.

Paunović Struggling

Veljko Paunović had little chance of taking Serbia to the World Cup, as the qualification campaign was already effectively lost before his appointment as head coach. However, for the more recent results, the 49-year-old is entirely responsible – and here the situation remains bleak, with five defeats in six matches played in 2026. The visitors also got off to a poor start in the Nations League, failing to pick up a single point in games against Greece (1:2) and the Netherlands (1:2). The "White Eagles" have been committing far too many passing errors, making it difficult for them to play out from the back under pressure. And against Klopp's trademark "gegenpressing," this could once again prove to be a major problem.

Another obvious reason for their disappointing performance in the current tournament is the absence of several key players. In the treatment room are the national team's all-time top scorer Aleksandar Mitrović, his attacking partner Dušan Vlahović (who has five goals in the last three rounds of the Turkish Süper Lig), leading defender Nikola Milenković, and first-choice goalkeeper Predrag Rajković. The defensive issues are particularly striking – even with five at the back and two holding midfielders, Serbia conceded 2.76 xGA (expected goals against) in the latest round.

Predicted Lineups for Germany – Serbia

Germany (4-2-3-1):

• Atubolu – Baku, Anton, Tschauner, Raum – Bischof, Pavlović – Kahl, Wirtz, El-Mala – Burkardt

Out: Musiala, Havertz (both injured), Kimmich, Adeyemi, Tah, Brown, Nmecha (all not in the squad)

Head coach: Jürgen Klopp

Serbia (5-4-1):

• V. Milinković-Savić – Nedeljković, Šimić, Eraković, Pavlović, Terzić – Živković, Lukić, Maksimović, S. Milinković-Savić – Jović

Out: Mitrović, Milenković, Rajković, Vlahović (all injured)

Head coach: Veljko Paunović

Referee

The referee for the match is Espen Eskås (Norway). His officiating style can hardly be called lenient, as in only 2 of his last 6 international matches has he shown fewer than 5 yellow cards. Especially noteworthy is his tendency to point to the penalty spot – he has awarded 6 penalties in his last 8 matches at various levels.

Prediction for Germany – Serbia: Germany to Win with a Handicap (-2.5) at 2.67

German fans haven't had much to celebrate from their national team's performances recently, but this match against Serbia should change that. Jürgen Klopp's side will once again field an experimental lineup, but the visitors will also be missing several key men, maintaining a significant gap in class. In the first two rounds, the Balkans have also shown extreme vulnerability to intense pressing, which makes them a stylistically convenient opponent for the Bundestimar. Also worth noting is their abysmal away record. Under Paunović, Serbia have played four matches outside their own borders and have failed to secure even a draw in any of them. In the last three cases, they were outright thrashed by a margin of at least three goals. We suggest backing a Germany win with a handicap (-2.5) at odds of 2.67.

Goals prediction: However, Klopp still needs to shore up his team's defensive organization. Under the new coach, the Germans regularly concede dangerous counter-attacks, so Serbia can reasonably count on scoring at least one goal. What's more, they have scored exactly one goal in each of their previous three matches. Therefore, as an additional option, it is worth considering "both teams to score – yes" at odds of 1.87.