Fiorentina vs Pisa: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

The Coppa Italia Round of 32 brings together a resurgent Fiorentina and a Pisa side still searching for stability under new management. After a disastrous start to the season forced an emergency coaching change, the Viola have suddenly found their winning touch. Their opponents from Serie B, meanwhile, are yet to fully embrace their new manager's philosophy and continue to struggle defensively. Can the newly inspired Fiorentina take full advantage?

Tactical Analysis: Fiorentina – A Familiar Face Brings Instant Results

Florence has endured a torrid beginning to the campaign. Across the first few rounds of Serie A, Fiorentina suffered three defeats—a humiliating 0-4 thrashing at the hands of Roma, a 0-3 loss to Frosinone, and a 1-2 setback against Torino. The tension in the dressing room under Fabio Grosso had become unbearable, and the club acted swiftly, showing him the door. In came Paolo Vanoli, the very man who had rescued the team from relegation last season and guided them all the way to the Conference League quarterfinals. The players, already familiar with the 54-year-old Italian, welcomed him with open arms. Rather than immediately overhauling the tactical approach, Vanoli did what he does best: he simplified the game and gave his men the freedom to express themselves.

The response was immediate. In Vanoli's very first match in charge, Fiorentina traveled to Venice and came away with a 4-2 victory. New signing Franco Mastantuono grabbed a hat-trick, his first goals for the club. The positive energy from the managerial change was palpable—the Viola carved out chances worth an xG of 3.31 and spent virtually the entire 90 minutes camped in the opposition's half. However, defensive solidity remains a work in progress. The backline features three inexperienced debutants, the oldest of whom is just 24 years old. It's worth noting that in the previous Coppa Italia round, Fiorentina dispatched Benevento with ease, winning 4-1.

Tactical Analysis: Pisa – Pragmatic Ideas Yet to Take Root

Pisa ended last season's Serie A campaign on a disastrous nine-match losing streak, tumbling into the second tier. Over the summer, the club brought in Paolo Bianco, a 49-year-old manager renowned for his ultra-pragmatic, results-first approach. His teams play in the style of Massimiliano Allegri, preferring a rock-solid 1-0 over any other scoreline. Yet, four games into the new season, the Nerazzurri are a long way from the football their coach is trying to instill. Their record includes wins over relegation-threatened sides Stabia (3-0) and Catanzaro (2-1), but defeats to stronger opponents Padova (0-1) and Entella (1-4).

The adaptation process has been complicated by a major summer transfer window. The squad has changed significantly from last season's model, and Bianco is essentially rebuilding the team from scratch. Goalkeeper Alessandro Confente, 28, has been inconsistent—making six saves in one game, then letting in all four shots on target in the next. Up front, experienced striker Andrea Petagna has gone quiet. A crucial statistic: only one of Pisa's opponents has failed to reach the 1 xG mark. This tells us the team is allowing far too many chances in their own box—a worrying prospect given Fiorentina's newfound attacking verve. In the previous Coppa Italia round against Empoli (1-1, 4-3 on penalties), Pisa actually conceded more than their opponents created.

Predicted Lineups

Fiorentina (4-2-3-1): De Gea – Mário, Dragushin, Ranieri, Valdepeñas – N'Dour, Fagioli – Mastantuono, Atta, Pote – Pellegrino

Unavailable: Parisi, Sottil (both injured)

Head Coach: Paolo Vanoli

Pisa (4-3-3): Confente – Calabresi, Canestrelli, Coppola, Angori – Vural, Leone, Correia – Leri, Petagna, Tramoni

Unavailable: Bozhinov, Lusuardi (both injured)

Head Coach: Paolo Bianco

Referee

The match officials have yet to be officially confirmed for this fixture.

Prediction and Bet

Main Prediction: Fiorentina to Win with a -1.5 Handicap at 2.10

The Fiorentina hierarchy made the right call by not waiting for further decline under Grosso. Vanoli's return to the dugout produced an immediate victory. The Viola are playing with greater freedom in attack, generating over three expected goals. Players who had previously worked with Paolo have rediscovered their confidence, while new signings feel trusted. After securing a convincing away win against Venezia, the team will be eager to repeat the performance in front of their own fans. The previous Coppa Italia round demonstrated that Fiorentina have no issues dispatching lower-division opposition—especially one like Pisa, who allow plenty of chances at their end and are still adjusting to a new manager.

Goals Prediction: Both Teams to Score – Yes at 1.59

Fiorentina have not kept a single clean sheet in any official match this season, even conceding against Benevento in the Coppa. Pisa, meanwhile, are shipping an average of 1.4 goals per game and are far from reliable defensively. With the visitors having failed to score in only one of their five matches so far, and the Viola becoming more prolific in attack under their new coach, backing both teams to find the net looks like a solid bet.