Greece vs Germany: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

After three rounds of the UEFA Nations League, Germany finds itself three points adrift of group leaders Greece. A win in Thessaloniki would allow the visitors to draw level with Ivan Jovanović’s side. Notably, the Bundesteam has never lost an away match against this opponent, winning three of the four encounters.

Defensive Tactics Against Top Sides

Greece has emerged as one of the revelations of the current Nations League campaign, remaining unbeaten through three matchdays. Their results include a comeback victory over Serbia (2–1), a historic first-ever win against Germany (1–0), and a draw with the Netherlands (2–2) – another top-15 FIFA-ranked nation. This is a versatile team that tries to play on the front foot against opponents of similar calibre, but against high-profile sides they consistently drop into a deep defensive block that is extremely difficult to break down. Notably, neither against the Germans nor against the Dutch did the Hellenes allow more than 1.27 xGA (expected goals against).

The only piece of bad news for Greek supporters is the injury to Christos Tzolis – currently the biggest star in Greek football. However, the Arsenal winger is not heavily involved in the defensive phase, so his absence should not prevent the hosts from once again shutting up shop effectively against Germany. In attack, the 24-year-old is set to be temporarily replaced by Georgios Masouras of Saudi side Al-NEOM, a role he already demonstrated in the match against the Netherlands by scoring after coming off the bench.

Experiments Continue

Germany finally secured their first victory under Jürgen Klopp, comfortably dispatching Serbia at home (2–0). As the decorated Bundesteam coach himself noted, his players activated their trademark counter-pressing at an extreme level, severely limiting the opposition’s space to operate. As a result, the Serbs controlled the ball for only 26% of the game and managed just a single shot on target against Jonas Urbig. Still, this success should not be overrated – Serbia under Veljko Paunović is hardly a formidable force and has yet to collect a single point. Moreover, in the first meeting with Greece (0–1), the Germans, despite similar possession percentages, were unable to crack the opponent’s defence and created far fewer dangerous chances – 1.27 xG compared to 3.84 xG in the previous round.

Klopp continues to experiment with his lineup, and in the match against Serbia, five players made their debuts for Germany: Urbig, Derry Scherhant, Vitali Janelt, Mika Baur, and Said El-Mala. But the standout performer was Tom Bischoff, who played his second game for the national team and competently replaced his Bayern Munich teammate Joshua Kimmich in the holding midfield role. Kimmich, along with Nmecha, Adeyemi, Tah, and Brown, had planned to end the camp. None of these important Bundesteam players – nor the injured Havertz and Musiala – will be seen on the pitch in Greece, so the reserves will once again receive plenty of playing time.

Predicted Lineups for Greece vs Germany

Greece (4-4-2): Tzolakis – Saliakas, Retsos, Mavropanos, Tsimikas – Karetsas, Kourbelis, Zafeiris, Masouras – Ioannidis, Pavlidis

Out: Konstantelias, Rota, Chatzidiakos, Giannoulis, Vagiannidis, Tzolis (all injured), Bakasetas (not in squad)

Head coach: Ivan Jovanović

Germany (4-2-3-1): Atubolu – Baku, Anton, Tschaou, Raum – Bischoff, Pavlović – Carl, Wirtz, El-Mala – Burkardt

Out: Musiala, Havertz (both injured), Kimmich, Adeyemi, Tah, Brown, Nmecha, Schlotterbeck (all not in squad)

Head coach: Jürgen Klopp

Referee: Clément Turpin (France)

The French official frequently receives appointments for major European matches. He has refereed Germany four times, never issuing more than three yellow cards in any of those games. However, Turpin often awards penalties in national team encounters – 11 in his last 20 such matches.

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Greece not to lose @ 1.92

Despite losing the first meeting, Germany once again enters the match against Greece as a heavy favourite. However, breaking down the very reliable Greek defence at the famous Toumba Stadium in Thessaloniki will be no easier than it was in Augsburg. The confident performance against Serbia should not be misleading – Ivan Jovanović’s side is currently at a much higher level in terms of organisation. Meanwhile, Jürgen Klopp is still searching for effective combinations, and this time we will again see an experimental German lineup. Considering also that the hosts have not lost a single match in the current Nations League season, the choice for a bet is the option Greece not to lose at 1.92.

Total goals prediction: Under 2.5 @ 2.16

Under the current coach, the Greek team focuses primarily on defence, and we expect an even more closed approach following the injury of their main attacking asset, Christos Tzolis. Germany, for their part, have played under the total in all three of their Nations League matches in 2026/27. Therefore, the total under (2.5) at odds of 2.16 looks equally attractive.