Croatia vs England: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

After a heavy defeat to Spain and a hard-fought win over the Czech Republic, Croatia and England arrive at their direct showdown with identical hauls of three points. Now it’s time to settle things face-to-face: who will chase the Spaniards for the top spot? The Croats have a score to settle with the visitors from the World Cup (2-4). The prize is the status of second power in the group, while the loser risks becoming the odd one out.

Croatia’s Rollercoaster

Slaven Bilić took over from Zlatko Dalić, and the national team immediately swung between extremes: a gritty 2-1 victory in the Czech Republic was followed by a 1-4 thrashing at the hands of Spain. In Prague, Marko Pašalić saved the day, but in Seville the side fell apart – a level score after Bello’s goal lasted just three minutes. After two rounds, there are three points in the bank, but a coherent performance is still missing.

Up front, the Kovacic-Perisic axis is working reliably: the former carries the ball out of pressure, while the latter delivers crosses into the box (he has an assist in each match so far). This formula will come in handy against England, but getting carried away in attack is dangerous – Saka and Gordon will instantly punish any abandoned flanks. The situation is compounded by a UEFA ban: there will be no crowd to drive the team forward, with only a hundred away fans allowed into the empty stands.

Bilić’s biggest personnel headache is the right flank. Juranović is injured, and the fitness of the recently ill Stanišić is in doubt (with Smolčić left as backup). However, plugging holes won’t be limited to the flank: due to Martin Erlić’s injury, the coaching staff had to urgently call up Pongračić and Jakić to the centre of defence. In midfield, however, Modrić’s return to the starting eleven seems inevitable: his ability to keep the ball alongside Kovacic will be critical under England’s intense pressing.

England: Handicaps and Weapons

England also have three points: a 2-3 home defeat to Spain and a 2-0 away win over the Czech Republic. At Wembley, Thomas Tuchel’s side led 2-1 at half-time, but Kane’s missed penalty broke the team’s spirit – the English lost both momentum and the match. The clean sheet in Prague also came with a caveat: the Czechs were reduced to ten men as early as the 25th minute, and it still took until the second half to finish them off. On the bright side, the Gordon-Kane partnership is clicking: both have scored in each of the two rounds.

In Rijeka, there is no point in England trying to outdo Croatia in positional pressing – instead, they need to crank up the tempo on the flanks. The left side, where Gordon operates, looks especially promising if the hosts’ Stanišić remains unavailable. Against the Czechs, Alexander-Arnold’s cross helped Anthony open the scoring – this same tool should be used to stretch Bilić’s defence. The key is careful build-up play: Spain harshly punished the British for turnovers, and giving away such balls to Modrić and Kovacic would be an unforgivable luxury.

The visitors’ infirmary is overflowing: Rice, James, Palmer, Rashford, Spence, and others are all out. The participation of O’Riley and Konsa is also in doubt, but Pickford’s return between the posts is a done deal – the coach had initially split the matches between him and Trafford. In the centre, Tuchel will likely trust the Anderson-Lewis-Skelly duo again. Without Rice, it is vital not to surrender the midfield to Croatia’s experienced engine room.

Predicted Lineups

Croatia (4-2-3-1): Livaković – Smolčić, Vušković, Šutalo, Gvardiol – Modrić, Kovačić – Marko Pašalić, Vlašić, Perišić – Budimir

Out: Erlić, Juranović (both injured), Stanišić (doubtful)

Head coach: Slaven Bilić

England (4-2-3-1): Pickford – Alexander-Arnold, Chalobah, Guehi, Hall – Anderson, Lewis-Skelly – Saka, Bellingham, Rogers – Kane

Out: Rice, Palmer, Rashford, Mainoo, Livramento (all injured), James, Burn, White, Stones, Henderson, Foden, Colwill, Maguire, Madueke, Spence (all not in squad), O’Riley, Konsa (both doubtful)

Head coach: Thomas Tuchel

Referee

Sven Jablonski (Germany)

In the Bundesliga, Jablonski is a model of leniency: 2.88 yellow cards per match with 21.35 fouls. Over 17 rounds of the league season, he sent no one off and awarded only three penalties. However, when officiating international fixtures, the German referee becomes stricter: his average rises to 4.4 yellows with 19.2 fouls.

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: England win at 1.89

England may not look like a monumental force right now, but in this duel the British are deserved favourites. A telling marker is how both sides fared against Spain. The English gave the world champions a fierce battle – they led 2-1. Had Kane converted his penalty, the outcome could have been completely different. Croatia, on the other hand, offered no serious resistance to the Spaniards and lost 1-4. After that debacle, Bilić openly lamented his players’ lack of healthy competitive aggression. Even home advantage won’t save the hosts. Due to UEFA sanctions, the match will be played in an empty stadium, so the British need not fear the famous Balkan pressure. When all the small details are added up, a natural advantage for the visitors emerges. We take England to win at 1.89.

Total goals prediction: Under 2.5 at 2.13

Croatia’s 1-4 defeat to Spain might look like an invitation to bet on goals, but behind that flashy scoreline lies a total of just 2.27 xG for both teams combined. England, meanwhile, managed only 1.48 xG against the Czechs despite playing a man up for almost the entire match. After being routed, it makes more sense for the hosts to close the spaces between the lines rather than get into a shootout. The visitors, for their part, have enough class to win without a goal fest. We expect a more restrained game than the recent results suggest and opt for under 2.5 goals at 2.13.