Belarus vs San Marino: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

In the third round of the Nations League, Belarus and San Marino meet on neutral ground in Budapest. Viktor Goncharenko’s side are accustomed to playing away from home, while Roberto Cevoli’s squad take to the road for the first time in this cycle after two home fixtures. Belarus are yet to score a single goal in the tournament, and San Marino have already shipped ten. Can the nominal visitors put up a fight?

Tactical Analysis: Belarus – A Long‑Awaited Breakthrough?

Belarus have had a mixed start to their Nations League campaign. They fell 0‑2 to Albania but then produced a competitive performance against Finland, holding them to a goalless draw. In that second match, Goncharenko’s men were the sharper side after the interval, outshooting the Finns 9‑4 (3‑1 on target). They even thought they had broken the deadlock when Alexander Selyava’s effort was ruled out for offside, and Trofim Melnichenko rattled the crossbar from another attempt. The current goalless streak is particularly surprising given the team’s form under Goncharenko since he took over in 2026. In six matches overall, Belarus have scored nine times – all of them in four friendly games. After the Finland draw, the coach stressed that his players had created enough chances and that the goals would come.

Now Belarus face a very different kind of encounter. San Marino will almost certainly cede possession and drop into a deep block, forcing the nominal hosts to unpick a packed defence. That will be a real test for an attack that, under Goncharenko, has yet to find the net in official competition. Fortunately, the squad has no injury concerns in the final third. Herman Barkovski, Vitali Lisakovich, Artem Shumansky and Trofim Melnichenko are all available, giving the coaching staff plenty of options to change the game if needed.

Tactical Analysis: San Marino – Searching for Balance

San Marino’s debut in League C has been tough. In the opening round, Roberto Cevoli’s men played the majority of the match with ten men and were thrashed 0‑7 by Finland. They then lost 0‑3 to Albania, but the performance was markedly more organised, and they even carved out a few dangerous openings. Nicola Nanni had a good chance to score, only for the Albanian goalkeeper to save his close‑range effort. Cevoli made seven changes to the starting eleven compared to the Finland game, and the side improved both defensively and offensively. Against Finland, they managed just one shot and an expected goals (xG) of 0.04; against Albania, that figure rose to 0.46, with six shots (one on target). Nevertheless, San Marino are still without a goal, and their goal difference remains the worst in the group.

The squad has been hit by injuries. Filippo Berardi is already sidelined, and Alberto Riccardi has undergone knee surgery that will keep him out for an estimated two to three months – both are significant losses. Backup goalkeeper Matteo Zavoli has also been left out of the latest squad. On the positive side, four players – Giulio Bugli, Pietro Marinuzzi, Nicolas Protti and Bartolomeo Riggioni – have joined up after playing for the Under‑21 team against Spain.

Predicted Lineups

Belarus (4‑4‑2): Lapoukhov – Kalinin, Volkov, Gomanov, Pechenin – Lukashov, Selyava, Ebong, Shumansky – Barkovski, Lisakovich Out: Shevchenko, Malkevich (both injured) Head coach: Viktor Goncharenko

San Marino (4‑3‑2‑1): Colombo – Benvenuti, Rossi, M. Cevoli, Giocondi – G. Capicchioni, Mularoni, L. Capicchioni – Lazzari, Pancotti – Nanni Out: Berardi, Riccardi (both injured), Zavoli (not in squad) Head coach: Roberto Cevoli

Referee: Alexandros Tsakalidis (Greece)

Tsakalidis is a strict official who does not shy away from brandishing cards. So far this season, he has taken charge of five matches across all competitions, averaging 5.8 yellow cards per game, sending off one player, and awarding two penalties. His no‑nonsense style could influence the discipline of both sides, especially if frustration mounts.

Prediction and Bet

Main bet: Belarus to win with a handicap of –2.5 goals at odds of 1.98. Belarus enter this match with enormous motivation. They have yet to score in two Nations League rounds and desperately need a victory to keep alive their hopes of finishing in the top two. San Marino are the ideal opponent to break that drought. Cevoli’s side have lost both games so far with an aggregate score of 0‑10, and their injury problems only worsen the outlook. While the nominal hosts have not found the net in this tournament, they created enough chances against Finland and have shown they can score – remember those nine goals in four friendlies under Goncharenko. Given the clear gap in class, backing Belarus with a –2.5 handicap looks appealing.

Total goals bet: Under 3.5 goals at odds of 1.90. A deluge of goals should not be expected. After two heavy losses, San Marino are likely to focus on a compact, defensive approach. Belarus, for their part, have not been prolific in official matches. Furthermore, in four of Goncharenko’s six matches in charge of Belarus, and in four of San Marino’s last five outings, the total number of goals stayed at three or fewer. Taking both sides’ recent trends into account, a bet on under 3.5 goals offers solid value.