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Mirassol vs Grêmio: prediction and odds

Série A · Brazil · 18 July 2026
Mirassol logoMirassol
2:1
1st half: 2:0
18.07.2026 00:00
Grêmio logoGrêmio

Match events

Bruno Santos de Oliveira1:0
16′
Denilson Alves Borges🟨
38′
Edson Carioca2:0
40′
41′
🟨Kannemann
65′
🟨Gustavo Martins
77′
2:1Carlos Vinícius
79′
🟨L. Pérez

Match statistics: Mirassol vs Grêmio

MirassolGrêmio
1.53xG (expected goals)0.72
44Ball possession, %56
14Shots9
3Shots on target4
5Corners4
14Fouls9
0Offsides1
1Yellow cards3
0Red cards0
99Attacks76
59Dangerous attacks38

💡 Match preview Mirassol vs Grêmio

The 19th round of Serie A brings a crucial encounter at the Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia as Mirassol host Gremio. For both sides, this fixture represents a defining moment in their respective campaigns. The home side, having emerged from a prolonged crisis, are intent on extending their unbeaten run, while the visitors will be desperate to end their miserable away form. Who will rise to the occasion and take a significant step toward their second-half objectives?

Tactical Analysis of Mirassol

Mirassol enter the match in 19th place with 16 points. The season started disastrously for the newly promoted side, but their recent results point to a genuine leap in quality. The “yellow-greens” have rediscovered the defensive solidity that made them tough to beat at home last season, and they are now undefeated in front of their own fans for three consecutive matches. That modest but meaningful streak includes victories over Fluminense (1–0) and Corinthians (2–1), confirming that the team is in excellent form.

Statistical models show that Mirassol’s home matches produce an expected goals (xG) of 1.16, which aligns almost perfectly with their actual scoring average of 1.21 goals per game – a testament to the consistency of their attacking output. The team make excellent use of their home advantage, and their defensive reliability in recent rounds has become the foundation for collecting points against strong opponents.

Tactical Analysis of Gremio

Gremio sit 16th with 21 points and are experiencing severe difficulties away from home this season. In their last nine league matches on the road, the team have scored just five goals while conceding 12 – an average of 0.56 scored and 1.33 conceded per game. The visitors struggle to create chances in hostile territory, making their attack extremely predictable and ineffective. The “black-and-blues” have yet to win a single away match this season, and they have recently fallen to a struggling Cruzeiro side (0–2).

Advanced metrics for Gremio’s away games reveal an expected goals (xG) of 0.64, which is slightly higher than their actual scoring rate of 0.56. However, their defense, with an xGA of 1.78, continues to allow too many opportunities at their own goal, inevitably leading to dropped points against well-organized opponents.

Tournament Motivation

After a disastrous start, Mirassol are forced to fight for survival. Every home match becomes a chance to close the five-point gap to safety. Gremio are also hovering dangerously close to the relegation zone, sitting just one point above it, making it essential for them to pick up points on the road to strengthen their position.

Injury Situation

The match will be played with significant absences for both clubs. Mirassol will be without key defender Igor Formiga (14 appearances out of 17), who is sidelined with a muscle injury. Gremio, meanwhile, will miss crucial defender Marlon (1 goal, 1 assist in 6 matches), who suffered a broken ankle. His absence is a major blow to the defensive stability, as Marlon was the leader of the backline. However, that defensive weakness could be offset by the presence of striker Carlos Vinicius (9 goals in 17 matches), who is among the top four scorers in the league.

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Mirassol to win with a handicap (0) at 1.72

Mirassol are playing consistently good football and are in excellent form, having not lost in five matches. Meanwhile, Gremio are struggling badly with their away attack, averaging just 0.56 goals per game. Given the home advantage and the head-to-head record, where Mirassol have won both previous meetings at their own ground (4–1 and 3–2), backing the home side looks justified. We take Mirassol to win with a handicap (0) at 1.72. We estimate the probability of this outcome at 63% (anything above 1.59 is playable).

Total goals prediction: Over 2.5 goals at 1.90

Despite Gremio’s low away scoring rate, the head-to-head meetings between these teams have been high-scoring affairs (4–1 and 3–2 in the two matches at Mirassol’s ground). Considering that the visitors’ defense is prone to errors, while their attack includes the league’s fourth-best scorer, betting on over 2.5 goals at 1.90 has merit. We estimate the probability of this outcome at 55% (anything above 1.80 is playable).

Match odds Mirassol vs Grêmio

Result (1X2)

X3.4211.9524

Double chance

1X1.25X21.85121.32

Both teams to score

No1.83Yes1.85

Over

11.0421.543346.750.51.011.51.312.52.093.53.724.57.7

Under

17.522.3131.3341.050.59.11.532.51.733.51.214.51.03

Handicap 1

01.411.02-12.75-27.21.51-1.53.58-2.58.1

Handicap 2

02.8311.3521.04-18.11.51.212.51.02-1.59.4

Correct score

0:08.70:19.70:220.51:06.11:15.851:2131:3412:08.52:18.22:215.52:3483:016.53:116.753:2324:0414:143

Predictions for Mirassol vs Grêmio

AO Amara Onyeka Handicap 2 (-1)odds 9.10 Lost

I'm confident the visitors will win. Their recent form is superior, and they consistently outperform this opponent in key matchups. The home side has struggled to generate offense, while the visitors' defense is built to shut down exactly that style of play.

CA Comfort Adeyemi Corners: Result: 1odds 1.53 Won

I am confident the home team will attack heavily down the flanks, leading to a high volume of corner kicks. This is a key aspect of their game plan, and I expect it to pay off.

RO Ronke Okoro Result: 2odds 4.35 Lost

I’m confident Gremio will win this match. They’re the older, more established club, and I haven’t heard of their opponent playing in Serie A for a long time. So I see Gremio not just avoiding a loss, but coming out on top.

CO Collins Obi Team 2 over 0.5odds 1.53 Won

I predict that India will not win the 2025 ICC Champions Trophy. The team’s recent struggles in knockout matches and inconsistent middle-order batting make them vulnerable against top sides. While they have home advantage, the pressure of a major tournament often exposes their weaknesses in high-stakes games.

VA Victoria Amadi Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.87 Won

I'm predicting that both teams will score. The attacking form on both sides has been strong recently, and defensive vulnerabilities are likely to be exposed. Given the high-scoring nature of their recent matches, I'm confident this bet will hit.

FA Faith Akintola Result: 1odds 1.88 Won

I predict Mirassol will secure a crucial home victory. They are in the relegation zone and must beat their direct competitors to climb out. The pressure is on, and playing at home gives them the edge they need to deliver.

FL Folake Lawal Over 4.5odds 7.50 Lost

I confidently predict that Mirossol will dominate offensively in this home match and put five goals past Grêmio. Their attacking form is sharp, and at home, they have consistently broken down strong defenses. Expect a high-energy performance that overwhelms the visitors.

ES Esther Sani Over 4.5odds 7.60 Lost

I'm confident Mirassol will avoid relegation this season. After 17 matches, they sit 19th with 16 points, just five adrift of safety, and only Chapacoense is worse. At home, they've been solid—three wins, three draws, three losses, scoring and conceding 11 each. They've earned most of their points here with effective attacking play. Gremio, meanwhile, is just one point above the drop zone with 21 points from 18 games. Away from home, they've failed to win any of nine matches, scoring only five and conceding 12. Mirassol has historically been a favorable opponent for them. I expect Mirassol to deliver a thrilling attacking performance and score at least five goals in this match.

RW Rita Waziri Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.87 Won

I’m confident Mirassol will take the win against Grêmio. They’ve been solid at home, and Grêmio’s away form has been inconsistent. This is a straightforward pick for me.

SA Stella Anyanwu Both teams to score — Yesodds 1.86 Won

I'm confident both teams will find the net, and the match will be high-scoring. The attacking talent on display and recent defensive vulnerabilities make an "over" outcome the smart play. Expect end-to-end action and goals from both sides.

GW Gabriel Waziri Correct score 2:0odds 8.70 Lost

I am confident that the home team will secure a decisive victory in this matchup. Their form and home advantage put them in a strong position to dominate.

YB Yetunde Bankole Corners: Result: Xodds 8.40 Lost

I predict there will be no winner. The conditions required for a definitive outcome are unlikely to be met, and the lack of clear criteria makes any decision ambiguous. Based on the current trajectory, no party will achieve the necessary threshold.

Match poster

Mirassol vs Grêmio — odds