Newport vs Roma: prediction and odds

The next stop on Roma’s British tour is the Welsh city of Newport. The local team of the same name is not a serious force even at the League Two level, and they have never crossed paths with an Italian club in their entire 114-year history.

Tactical Analysis: Newport County

A regular in the fourth tier of English football, Newport County has spent the last 13 seasons in League Two. However, the club from the city of the same name is currently much closer to relegation to the National League than to promotion, having finished a lowly 20th in the last championship. This poor run led to the dismissal of head coach Christian Fuchs, but the Welsh side only found a new manager by the end of July, appointing Hayden Mullins. The 47-year-old Englishman started his tenure with a victory over Yeovil Town (2:1), the "Orange and Blacks'" first win in five matches. The hosts began their pre-season under interim boss Chris Todd, managing only two wins from six friendlies. Their only serious opponent during that period was Championship side Bristol City, who they held to a 0-0 draw.

The "Orange and Blacks'" squad is entirely consistent with the level of the league they play in. There are no outstanding footballers here, and the main "star" is likely to be Scottish central defender Kyle Cameron, who joined the club as a free agent in the summer transfer window. However, he has not yet added reliability to the defense, with seven goals conceded in the last three friendlies, despite none of those opponents playing in a division higher than League One.

Tactical Analysis: AS Roma

Gian Piero Gasperini’s classic system of man-to-man pressing has surprisingly taken root quickly at Roma and helped the capital club secure a Champions League berth for the first time since 2019. However, in summer friendlies, it hasn't worked optimally so far, with no wins in two games. A 3-3 draw with Cannes from the French third division was followed by a 4-1 defeat to Cardiff City from the second-tier English Championship.

The main reason for these lackluster performances has been the high training loads that Gasperini traditionally gives his teams at the start of pre-season to build their fitness base. Another factor has been the extensive rotation, giving playing time to young players who will not be starters in the upcoming championship. None of the reserves have taken their chance, and the best player for the giallorossi remains Paulo Dybala. Despite the team's poor results, the experienced Argentine has been involved in goals in both friendlies—a brace against Cannes and the only goal against Cardiff. His compatriot, forward Santiago Castro, still has to settle in at Roma. The newcomer has yet to make an impact, and for the clash with Newport, we expect Donyell Malen, Serie A's second-top scorer last season, to return to the starting lineup. Konstantinos Koulierakis is also certain to get some minutes. The Greek national team defender was bought from Wolfsburg on the first day of August and will compete with Mario Hermoso for a place.

Predicted Lineups

Newport County (3-4-1-2): Wright – Thomas, Cameron, Jenkins – Norman, Smith, Pugh, Davies – Biggins – Doidge, Bamba

• Out: Krot (injury)
• Head Coach: Hayden Mullins

AS Roma (3-4-2-1): Svilar – Mancini, N'Dicka, Hermoso – Wesley, Cristante, Mannini, Rensch – Dybala, Soulé – Malen

• Out: Baa (injury), Koné, El Aynaoui (both not in the squad)
• Head Coach: Gian Piero Gasperini

Referee

The match officials have not been specified in the source material.

Prediction and Bet

Main Prediction: Roma win with a handicap of (-1.5)

Roma have not won a single match in the current off-season so far, but the game against Newport looks like an excellent chance to break that losing streak. Training loads are beginning to decrease, and the gap in class between a Champions League participant from Italy and an outsider from English League Two is simply colossal. Even against low-level opposition this summer, Newport has performed mediocrely, and the hosts are not accustomed to playing top clubs. Their last such match was in January 2024, a 4-2 defeat to Manchester United in the FA Cup. Furthermore, the "Orange and Blacks'" defenders are technically weak and very poor at playing out from under pressure—an ideal target for Gian Piero Gasperini’s system. So here, we choose a Roma win with a handicap of (-1.5).

Prediction on Goals: Both Teams to Score – Yes

Newport is quite capable of delighting the local crowd by scoring against the Italian giants. The hosts' average individual total in the current pre-season is 1.86 goals, while Roma have conceded seven goals in their first two summer friendlies. It makes sense to consider the "Both Teams to Score – Yes" option.