France vs Italy: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

France have done exactly what was expected of a group favourite: six points from six, top spot, and a perfect record after two rounds of the Nations League. Now they face an Italian side carrying plenty of baggage, and the hosts will be expected to extend their winning run against opponents who have lost four of the last five meetings between the nations.

Tactical analysis: France

Zinedine Zidane’s return to the French bench was long awaited, and the start has been flawless in terms of results. Two matches, two wins. Yet this is not the swashbuckling France many hoped for after years of pragmatism under Didier Deschamps. Turkey and Belgium were both beaten 1-0, and in neither game did Les Bleus exceed 1.2 xG. The most visible shift is in the aggressive counterpressing: France immediately swarm the opposition after losing the ball in the final third, and that is precisely how they scored the winner against Turkey.

The scorer that night was Kylian Mbappé, but he picked up an injury in the process and will not feature in the coming matches. Even without him, the attacking options remain elite. In the current 4-3-3, a front three of Olise, Dembélé and Barcola can operate without any real drop-off. Olise, in particular, is in sensational form: he produced a goal and an assist in the last Bundesliga round and has registered at least one goal contribution in each of his two appearances under Zidane.

The concern is defensive solidity. France have kept two clean sheets, but they have allowed 17 shots from inside the box across those matches. With William Saliba unavailable, the back line looks more vulnerable than the results suggest.

Tactical analysis: Italy

Roberto Mancini is back in charge of Italy, and the memories of Euro 2020 remain fresh. That was his greatest achievement in two decades, but this second spell has been far less convincing. Mancini has never been a coach who builds a structured low block or squeezes results from limited resources. His teams prefer to impose themselves, and against weaker opponents that approach can look brilliant. The 4-1 thrashing of Turkey was a perfect example. But the opening Nations League match told a different story: Belgium tore the Azzurri apart on the counterattack in a 0-2 defeat, and the margin could easily have been far worse.

Italy’s squad is not what it once was. Mancini is rotating heavily, and another reshuffle is expected in Paris. Nicolò Barella, Gianluca Mancini and Daniel Maldini were all rested against Turkey and have been preparing specifically for this higher-profile fixture. Moise Kean should return to the starting eleven, replacing Francesco Pio Esposito, who needs a breather after two consecutive starts. Sandro Tonali has played every minute of both matches and is in greater need of rest, so the midfield trio is likely to feature Issa Doumbia and Davide Frattesi alongside Barella.

Predicted lineups

France (4-3-3): Maignan – Koundé, Upamecano, Lacroix, Truffert – Cherki, Koné, Rabiot – Olise, Dembélé, Barcola

Unavailable: Zaïre-Emery, Saliba, T. Hernandez, Konaté, Mbappé (all injured), Thuram, Tchouaméni, Kanté (all out of the squad)

Head coach: Zinedine Zidane

Italy (4-3-3): Donnarumma – Di Lorenzo, G. Mancini, Bastoni, Calafiori – Barella, Doumbia, Frattesi – Maldini, Kean, Cambiaghi

Unavailable: Dimarco, Locatelli, Cristante, Cambiaso, Meret, Spinazzola, Buongiorno, Zaniolo (all injured)

Head coach: Roberto Mancini

Referee

Jesús Gil Manzano of Spain takes charge. He is a familiar face in international football and has a reputation for being strict: 15 yellow cards in his last three matches involving national teams. He is also not afraid to reach for a red card, having produced three dismissals in his previous five international assignments.

Prediction and bet

Both teams changed coaches over the summer, but the situations could hardly be more different. Zidane inherited a squad that reached the World Cup semifinal and remains full of world-class talent. Italy, meanwhile, are still recovering from missing the World Cup entirely, and the current squad simply does not measure up to the French one. Even the absence of Mbappé changes little in that regard.

Italy’s problems are not just about missing players. They have forgotten how to defend with discipline, and Mancini’s attacking philosophy is unlikely to change that. France’s counterattacking threat is devastating, and the numbers are damning: Italy have lost three consecutive matches against top-20 FIFA opponents by at least two goals.

The main bet is France to win with a -1.5 handicap at odds of 2.03.

For the total, there is also a case for goals. France have kept two clean sheets, but Italy scored four against Turkey and managed 1.68 xG even in the defeat to Belgium. Head-to-head matches have also been high-scoring lately, with four goals scored in each of the last four meetings between these sides. The additional pick is over 3.5 total goals at 2.16.