Belgium vs Turkey: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Hakan Çalhanoğlu has been handed a rather unflattering compliment: with their captain watching from the sidelines, Turkey have opened their Nations League campaign with two straight defeats. No other side in the group remains stuck on zero points – except Vincenzo Montella’s men. The importance of Çalhanoğlu was never in question, but life without him has so far proved a puzzle Turkey cannot solve. Their next attempt comes in Belgium, where even a full-strength side would have found the going tough. Can the Turks raise their game when it matters most?

Belgium’s New Identity

Belgium kicked off their tournament with a statement victory, beating Italy 2-0 on their own turf in Rome. Mark van Bommel saw his ideas validated immediately: no sitting back, instead rapid attacks that tore through the hosts, producing an expected goals tally of 2.67 against Italy’s 1.47. The defence had its shaky moments, but Lammens stood tall, and Belgium’s conversion in front of goal was clinical. France proved a sterner test: a 0-1 loss, just 0.69 xG and only two shots on target. To their credit, the Belgians kept a clean sheet until the 88th minute, but on the balance of play, the defeat was deserved.

Under Van Bommel, Belgium look noticeably sharper – fewer touches, more verticality, and relentless pressing once the ball is lost. That approach paid off in Rome, where both goals came from lightning-quick transitions. Against France, however, the flip side was exposed: when the opposition sits deep and closes the space, Belgium lack that one player capable of producing a moment of magic in the box. Against Turkey, the key will be maintaining that speed while ensuring Arda Güler doesn’t find pockets of space between the lines or exploit the channels behind the full-backs.

This style demands freshness, and freshness must be managed carefully. Van Bommel has already hinted that midfielder Lavia is unlikely to start. With Onana injured, the expected central pairing is Raskin and Tielemans. Out wide, the goalscorers from Rome provide the spark: Godts continues on the left in the absence of Doku, while Lukebakio is likely to replace the suspended Moreira on the right. De Bruyne’s situation is trickier – he started both matches but was substituted around the hour mark both times. Vanaken could offer him a breather from the off, but that would strip Belgium of their primary playmaker. The most probable outcome is that Kevin starts again, though he won’t see out the full 90 minutes.

Montella’s Selection Headaches

Turkey’s opening fixtures left a mixed impression. They lost 0-1 to France but looked competitive, refusing to fall apart under pressure from a top-tier opponent. Then came the collapse against Italy: three goals conceded before half-time, a 1-4 defeat in the end. Turkey did register 1.45 xG and 15 shots, but their inability to defend reliably undid all their attacking effort. The Italians looked at home inside the Turkish box, scoring most of their goals from rebounds and individual errors. Montella’s side simply lacked discipline.

Montella favours short passing and patient build-up through technically gifted midfielders, but against Italy that structure fell apart – the opposition reached the penalty area far too easily. Belgium are most dangerous in transition, so Turkey cannot afford to push their full-backs high while losing the ball in central areas. Arda Güler’s role becomes even more critical: with the two main playmakers absent, he is the only realistic link between midfield and attack.

Speaking of absent playmakers – on 30 September, Kökçü was ruled out of the squad with a toe injury, while Çalhanoğlu misses the camp with a thigh problem. Montella is without both of his usual deep-lying creators. Yuksek replaced Kökçü at half-time against Italy and is likely to start alongside Özcan. That pairing offers plenty of ball-winning ability but little of the incisive passing Turkey need. One solution is to drop Güler deeper, handing him the role behind striker Uzun. The downside is that Arda would then be involved in starting attacks but far less often in finishing them. With Yıldız also injured, moving Güler away from goal is a luxury Turkey can hardly afford. The good news: first-choice goalkeeper Çakır returns from suspension.

Predicted Lineups

Belgium (4-2-3-1): Lammens – Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, Seys – Raskin, Tielemans – Lukebakio, De Bruyne, Godts – De Ketelaere Unavailable: Moreira (suspended), Onana, Doku, Courtois (all out of squad), Trossard (doubtful) Head coach: Mark van Bommel

Turkey (4-2-3-1): Çakır – Çelik, Demiral, Bardakcı, Elmali – Yüksek, Özcan – Aydın, Güler, Uzun – Yılmaz Unavailable: Kökçü, Çalhanoğlu, Yıldız, Müldür (not in squad), Topçu (doubtful) Head coach: Vincenzo Montella

The Referee

Rohit Saggi of Norway takes charge. He is a lenient official with a fairly high tolerance for physical play. This season, across 18 matches in all competitions, he has averaged 3.56 yellow cards and 26 fouls per game. In 13 of those 18 matches, he showed no more than four cautions.

Prediction and Bet

Turkey have lost four of their last five matches, including World Cup qualifiers and Nations League games, and in three of those they failed to score. After the 1-4 hammering by Italy, it is fair to say Montella’s system has stopped working. And there is little sign of a sudden improvement given the personnel crisis: Çalhanoğlu and Kenan Yıldız are out, and now Orkun Kökçü has joined them. The expected midfield pairing of Yüksek and Özcan is essentially a backup unit. In their current state, Turkey look clear underdogs. Belgium, by contrast, look solid under Van Bommel – they beat Italy by two goals and gave a strong France side a real contest. The pick: Belgium to win with a -1.5 handicap at 2.18.

Total goals tip: Belgium have enough firepower to punish a vulnerable opponent, while Turkey – already missing Çalhanoğlu and now Kökçü – look weaker in midfield after conceding four to Italy. That said, Belgium are not impenetrable, and an away goal is a real possibility. Three of Belgium’s last six home matches have produced at least four goals, and Turkey have hit that mark in two of their last three. Over 3.5 goals at 2.15 looks like a solid target once again.