Latvia vs Montenegro: Prediction, Betting Tips and Match Preview

Latvia are fast becoming the most tedious national team in European football. Two rounds into the new Nations League campaign, the Baltic side have registered exactly one shot on target and are still waiting for their first goal. Numbers like that make victories a distant dream, especially against a Montenegro outfit that thinks only in attack. The real question ahead of this clash is not whether the visitors will push forward, but how many times they will slice through the hosts' back line.

Latvia: The Coaching Staff Has Run Out of Ideas

This is a genuinely difficult period for Latvian football. In qualifying for the 2026 World Cup, the team finished second from bottom, with only Andorra behind them. Their Baltic Cup campaign was no better: fourth place, a penalty shootout defeat to Lithuania (1:1, 4:5 on spot kicks) and a 0:1 loss to the Faroe Islands. The Nations League followed a similarly grim pattern. After two matchdays, Latvia have yet to score, having lost 0:2 to Armenia and then been held to a goalless draw by Cyprus.

The attacking struggles are not hard to explain. Head coach Paolo Nicolato has committed to a deeply conservative five-man defensive block, and the approach has become even more cautious since the autumn squad was announced. Latvia travelled to the camp without key defenders Alvis Jaunzems (46 caps) and Krister Toberts (37 caps), and without those experienced figures Nicolato has abandoned even the pretence of attacking intent. The team now sits deep with almost every outfield player behind the ball, and the numbers confirm it. Against Armenia, Latvia produced a meagre 0.2 expected goals (xG). In the home meeting with Cyprus, they did not manage a single shot on target. It is difficult to imagine a more damning statistic for a side that is supposed to be competing.

Montenegro: The Attacking Gamble Is Paying Off

Montenegro underwent a change of direction in September 2025, appointing the young Mirko Vučinić as head coach. His message was clear: modern, attacking, dominant football. The early results suggest the message has landed. In nine matches under Vučinić, Montenegro have scored at least two goals in all but one game. Their Nations League campaign opened with a pair of victories, 2:1 against Cyprus and a thrilling 3:2 win over Armenia. The attack has been almost flawless, generating 4.5 xG across those two matches and converting that into five real goals.

That is not to say everything is perfect. Before the autumn international window, Montenegro were forced to cope without several important attacking options. Adam Marušić, the experienced right wing-back with five goals in 70 caps, was unavailable, as were left winger Sead Hakšabanović (one goal in 36 games) and attacking midfielder Milan Vukotić (16 caps). Yet the squad has enough depth to absorb those losses. Nikola Krstović is in outstanding form, contributing two goals and one assist in the two Nations League matches so far. The concern remains at the back. Against Armenia, young Andrej Đurić was handed a debut at centre-back, and Montenegro conceded twice from an xG of just 0.89. They are dangerous going forward, but far from watertight at the other end.

Predicted Lineups

Latvia (5-2-1-2): Matrevics – Savalnieks, Melniks, Chernomordy, Sirkins, Cigaņiks – Zelenkov, Vapne – Emsis – Uldriķis, Gutkovskis

Unavailable: Ikaunieks, Varslavāns, Toberts, Šits, Jaunzems, Melnis, Birka (all injured), Veips, Jagodinskis, Sits (all not in squad)

Head coach: Paolo Nicolato

Montenegro (4-1-3-2): Popović – Roganović, Đurić, Savić, Gašović – Janković – Vuković, Lončar, Bulatović – Osmajić, Krstović

Unavailable: Marušić, Vukotić, Hakšabanović, Ražnatović (all injured)

Head coach: Mirko Vučinić

Referee

The man in the middle will be Bulgaria’s Radoslav Gidzhenov. Over the course of last season, Gidzhenov took charge of 28 official matches and established himself as a strict, no-nonsense official. His averages make for uncomfortable reading for any defender: 24.5 fouls per game, 5.21 yellow cards per game, a red card in every second match and a penalty awarded in every third. Expect plenty of stoppages and a physical battle, with little sympathy from the referee.

Prediction and Bet

It is genuinely difficult to find a convincing argument in favour of Latvia. The team is suffering from a crisis of ideas, plays purely on the counter, and offers nothing in the final third. With Renārs Varslavāns and Jānis Ikaunieks missing through injury, there is no creative spark left, and the home side could not even manage a shot on target against a side of Cyprus’s level. Against a Montenegro team that attacks with real boldness, that task becomes even harder.

Montenegro, by contrast, look sharp and confident. Under Vučinić, they create an average of 1.66 xG away from home, and Krstović’s current form means chances are being converted. They are also not afraid of conceding, having snatched late wins against Cyprus and Armenia with goals after the 85th minute. The visitors should have enough to wear Latvia down, so backing Montenegro to win at 1.86 looks the sensible play.

As for the total, the over has landed in four of Montenegro’s last five matches. They have scored at least twice in eight of their previous nine games, though they have kept a clean sheet only twice in that run. Latvia, meanwhile, have conceded an average of 1.5 goals per home game across their last ten outings. Expect the visitors to keep the trend going, but also expect the hosts to create a few chances of their own. Take over 2.5 goals at 2.25.