Jeju vs Bayern Munich: prediction and odds

Bayern Munich kick off their Asian tour with a friendly on Jeju Island against the local K-League side. The German giants are still shaking off the rust after their summer break, while the Korean hosts have had to squeeze this fixture right between their domestic league matches. Both sides will be far from full strength, but does that mean the football will be any less entertaining?

Jeju to Cash In and Test the Bench

The K-League season is in full swing. After 21 rounds, Jeju United sit in 7th place, which is currently not enough to qualify for the championship playoff. It’s unclear if that is even the primary goal for manager Sérgio Costa, especially considering his predecessor only managed to keep the club in the top flight at the very last moment. Right now, the team is just five points above the relegation playoff zone. Just two days before this friendly, Costa’s men played out a thrilling 3-3 draw against a direct rival, Incheon United, despite taking the lead twice.

Naturally, all of their focus was on the league match. Furthermore, after this "sparring" session, the Korean side will have only three full days to recover. In these circumstances, the coaching staff will almost certainly prioritize resting their key players and giving a chance to the reserves and some youth team members. This is unlikely to have a positive impact on the result against Bayern, but the scoreline is clearly not the top priority here. It’s quite possible that Mateus Ayas will start. He only recently joined the club and hasn’t played since May, but he came off the bench in the last two matches and scored a goal in each.

Bayern Shifting Gears

Before flying to Korea, the "Reds" played two friendlies, from which it’s impossible to draw any far-reaching conclusions. First, they lost 1-2 to Wehen Wiesbaden from the third tier of German football. Then, following a well-established tradition, they scored a double-digit number of goals against Rottach-Egern, winning 15-0. The defeat could have been avoided, as at least four top-class players appeared after the break, but the main emphasis was on evaluating the youngsters.

A much stronger lineup took part in the thrashing of the amateurs. Players returning from their post-World Cup holidays included Jonathan Tah, Kim Min-jae, Hiroki Ito, Nathaniel Brown, and Joshua Kimmich. Also present were first-choice goalkeepers Manuel Neuer and Jonas Urbig, though they didn’t see any playing time. At least one of them should get some minutes against Jeju. Also traveling to Asia are Konrad Laimer, Josip Stanišić, and Luis Dias. Vincent Kompany gave extra rest to Dayot Upamecano, Michael Olise, and Harry Kane. The rest of the absentees didn’t make the trip due to injuries. It’s clear that in this upcoming match, Bayern will look much more like their usual selves than they did in the previous two friendlies.

Predicted Lineups

Jeju United (3-4-2-1): An – Kwon, Rim, Kim Jae-woo – M. Park, Yang, G. Kim, Woon – Chinari, Shin – Ayas

Unavailable: None

Head Coach: Sérgio Costa

Bayern Munich (4-2-3-1): Urbig – Boey, Tah, Min-jae, Bischof – Chaves, Pavlović – Ibrahimović, Ndiaye, Cardoso – Sieb

Unavailable: Buchmann, Davies, Karl, Gnabry, Musiala, Zaragoza, Saibari (all injured), Upamecano, Mike, Olise, Kane (all not in squad)

Head Coach: Vincent Kompany

Prediction and Bet

Main Prediction: Bayern Munich to win with a handicap of (-1.5)

The Korean side might have been able to compete against a Bayern youth team, but against a mixed lineup, they will have a tough time. For the hosts, this game is purely commercial. The coaching staff is unlikely to be thrilled that this "sparring" match was scheduled right after an energy-sapping game against Incheon and just four days before a trip to Jeonbuk Motors, a match where the team already has little chance of success. Jeju will throw their reserves into the fray. Kompany, on the other hand, can afford to give playing time to those who featured at the World Cup. The "Reds" are the clear favorites here, so backing a Bayern win with a (-1.5) handicap is the play.

Total Goals Prediction: Over (3.5)

The fans will come to see a show, and both teams are more than capable of providing one. Jeju’s last two games ended in high-scoring draws in regular time (2-2 and 3-3). Expecting the same level of attacking efficiency is difficult, but their defense will be even more vulnerable due to the squad rotation and the strength of the opposition. Bayern plays with a high defensive line and man-marking pressing in official matches, and in friendlies, they will be even less shy about taking risks. The Munich side might concede once or even twice, but they will likely not stop at just a couple of goals themselves. Betting on total goals over 3.5 is the call.