AC Milan vs Inter: prediction and odds

Serie A never made it to Australia, despite a February clash between AC Milan and Como originally being slated for Perth. However, football fans in that city will still get a taste of Italian action, as the Rossoneri are set to play a pre-season friendly Derby della Madonnina against Inter right there. The two Lombard giants have faced off 19 times in unofficial matches, and currently, there is no edge for either side, with seven wins apiece.

Amorim Overhauls the Squad

For the majority of the 2025/26 season, Massimiliano Allegri’s ultra-pragmatic style delivered results. However, AC Milan completely collapsed at the finish line, suffering three defeats in their final four league matches and missing out on Champions League qualification. This was the catalyst for parting ways with the experienced Italian, prompting the Rossoneri to once again bet on a Portuguese coach—their third in just two years. Ruben Amorim has already taken charge of his first match, a 2-2 draw away from home in a friendly against Celtic.

In Glasgow, the 41-year-old manager deployed his customary 3-4-2-1 formation and utilized two completely different XIs, neither of which could be called a first-choice lineup. However, the players who took the pitch after the interval performed significantly better, seizing the initiative and clawing back a two-goal deficit. Special mention must go to Samuel Chukwueze, who sharply raised the tempo of attacks down the right flank and provided one assist, as well as the young Francesco Camarda, who effectively finished off his teammates’ efforts by scoring both goals.

For the clash with Inter, we expect to see both players in the starting lineup, alongside central defender Mario Gila. The Spanish footballer, purchased from Lazio, not only effectively disrupted the opponent’s attacks after the break but also took an active part in Milan’s forays forward. Meanwhile, another summer signing, centre-forward Gonçalo Ramos from PSG, and contract-extender Luka Modrić have only recently returned from vacation. Therefore, their playing time in the upcoming derby will likely be very limited.

Unbeaten Run Continues

Last season was a triumph for Inter, marked by their first “double” since 2010. However, the Nerazzurri have no intention of resting on their laurels. Even in summer friendlies, Christian Chivu’s men leave no doubt about their class, remaining undefeated. While victories over amateur side Aasen (16-0) and 2. Bundesliga team Karlsruher (2-1) might seem routine, their success against Manchester City—winning on penalties after a 1-1 draw in regulation time—looks far more impressive.

In the clash with one of England’s strongest teams, the Lombard side played two very different halves, both in terms of personnel and performance. Before the break, Inter’s first-choice lineup executed counter-attacks very well and could easily have scored more than once. In contrast, the young reserves deployed in the second half parked the proverbial bus in an attempt to hold onto the draw. A notable issue remains on the right flank. Following the sale of Denzel Dumfries, Andy Diouf and Luis Henrique are competing for the spot, but neither looks like a full-fledged replacement for the Dutchman. Both are active on the ball and skilled with their dribbling, but they consistently struggle defensively.

Inter signed three new players this summer, and two have already shown their quality. Aleksandar Stanković operated effectively in midfield, linking defense and attack, while Ivan Provedel performed better in the penalty shootout than Gianluigi Donnarumma himself. The only one yet to feature is central defender John Stones. He, along with three other first-team players—Manuel Akanji, Lautaro Martínez, and Marcus Thuram—is still on vacation following the World Cup.

Predicted Lineups for AC Milan vs Inter

AC Milan (3-4-2-1): Torriani – Gila, Gabbia, Pavlović – Atekame, Fofana, Loftus-Cheek, Bartesaghi – Chukwueze, Nkunku – Camarda

• Unavailable: Pulisic, Giménez (both injured); Maignan, Saelemaekers, De Winter, Yashari, Rabiot (all not in squad)
• Head Coach: Ruben Amorim

Inter (3-5-2): Provedel – Pavard, Bisseck, Bastoni – Diouf, Barella, Stanković, Mkhitaryan, Dimarco – F. Esposito, Idrissou

• Unavailable: L. Martínez, Thuram, Akanji, Stones (all not in squad)
• Head Coach: Christian Chivu

Prediction for AC Milan vs Inter: Inter to Win at 2.20

Main Prediction: Heading into this pre-season derby, both Milanese teams are in a similar physical condition, and we see motivation as the key factor here. The match is a friendly, but it is very important for Inter to end their seven-match winless streak against their arch-rivals. Furthermore, Ruben Amorim’s style appears far more convenient for the Nerazzurri than the footballing principles of Milan’s previous managers. The Portuguese coach has not yet had time to build his trademark pressing model, while the Rossoneri will be up against the best team in Italy at playing out from pressure. This will likely create many open spaces in the nominal hosts’ defense, spaces that the reigning Scudetto holders exploit brilliantly. We are backing an Inter win at 2.20.

Total Goals Prediction: With Massimiliano Allegri having departed for Napoli, neither of the Lombard top clubs will be playing pragmatic football, and in this derby, we expect to see plenty of goals. Inter’s average scoring rate in friendlies under Christian Chivu currently stands at a phenomenal 3.71 goals per game, while Milan and Celtic combined for four goals in Amorim’s debut match. Therefore, it makes sense to look at the over (3.5) goals market at odds of 2.32.