Al-Nassr vs Almería: prediction and odds

For the third consecutive summer, Al-Nassr and Almería meet in a preseason friendly as both clubs fine-tune their preparations for the upcoming campaign. The previous two encounters were won by the Spanish side. Can the Saudi champions take revenge without Cristiano Ronaldo, who is still resting after the 2026 World Cup?

Tactical Analysis

Al-Nassr: New Coach, Same Aggression

Al-Nassr finally ended their long wait for the Saudi Pro League title in 2025/26, securing the gold that had eluded them in recent seasons. Now the task is to defend that crown, but they will have to do so under a new manager. The previous head coach departed to take over the Portuguese national team, and the vacancy was filled by Ange Postecoglou. What does this mean for the players? Only that the Yellow and Black will take risks every minute on the pitch. The Australian coach sets an extremely high defensive line, demands immediate pressing after losing possession, and aims for dominance through quick vertical passes.

This approach guarantees high-scoring matches, and the preseason has already confirmed that. In friendlies, Al-Nassr lost to Benfica B (1–2) and mid-table Portuguese side Estrela (2–4), but managed to beat far less prestigious Mérida (2–0). Importantly, the coach does not have to integrate many new signings because Al-Nassr has been inactive on the transfer market this summer. There are no purchases, and the losses are minimal: the only significant departure is starting midfielder Marcelo Brozović (29 league appearances in 2025/26).

For the upcoming match, the coach can count on almost all of his key players. Cristiano Ronaldo is still on leave after the World Cup. Every other leader has already joined the training camp. João Félix and Sadio Mané are training with the squad, defender Iñigo Martínez has begun to see some minutes on the pitch, and the only man in the treatment room is right-back Sultan Al-Ghannam.

Almería: Building for a La Liga Return

Almería last played in Spain’s top flight in the 2023/24 season. In the previous campaign, they had a great chance to win promotion, but lost the decisive home play-off match against Málaga (1–2). The new season will again begin in the Segunda División. The task of returning to La Liga falls to new coach Javier García Pimienta. The philosophy of the 51-year-old Spaniard is built on the principles of classic Barcelona. Pimienta’s teams play in a 4–3–3 formation, as wide as possible, and in a dominant manner. The new coach’s football is difficult to learn, so in preseason friendlies, Almería cannot yet boast great success. After a win over modest Águilas (1–0), they suffered goalless defeats against more prestigious Granada (0–2) and Betis (0–1).

Reaching the Segunda play-offs was a good result, so the club’s management kept the core of the squad. The players who left were mostly substitutes or those who had been out on loan. The only significant departure is left-back Álex Centelles (22 games in 2025/26). The arrivals were primarily aimed at strengthening the defensive line. In the match against Betis, new centre-backs Jorge Pulido (from Huesca) and Andrei Popovic (from Hellas Verona’s youth team) appeared on the pitch. Alex Sola (from Granada) also played the full 90 minutes at right-back. For this reason, Almería has not yet been able to guarantee defensive solidity, but it is expected that Sola will be moved to his natural position. The squad is injury-free, so the head coach can count on all his strongest players.

Predicted Lineups

Al-Nassr (4–2–3–1): Al-Akidi – Al-Nasser, Simakan, Martínez, Al-Najdi – Al-Naji, Al-Hassan – Soufiani, Ângelo, Hakawi – Marran

Unavailable: Al-Ghannam (injury), Ronaldo (not in squad), Bento (suspended)

Head coach: Ange Postecoglou

Almería (4–3–3): Fernández – Luna, Pulido, Popovic, Muñoz – Baba, Melamed, Guedes – Sola, Thalis, Morcillo

Unavailable: None

Head coach: Javier García Pimienta

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Al-Nassr to win

Both teams have changed coaches in the offseason, so they still have to master new principles and reach peak form. However, we give the edge to the Saudi champions. First, Al-Nassr has kept its core intact, meaning the Yellow and Black do not need to search for team chemistry. Almería, on the other hand, has undergone major defensive reshuffling, and the defensive specialists still need to gel. Second, the Spanish coach installs a difficult style of football to learn, so Almería’s players make mistakes. Postecoglou’s style is aggressive, so Al-Nassr’s players will have opportunities to catch opponents out. Third, in the upcoming match, the Saudis can field starters from the first XI, especially in the defensive line, where we may see the Martínez–Simakan partnership. Finally, the Yellow and Black are currently more effective in attack, and five goals in three friendlies confirms that. By a combination of factors, we take a win for Al-Nassr.

Prediction on goals: Both teams to score – Yes

Al-Nassr have not left the pitch without scoring in any of their three preseason friendlies. Over this short stretch, the Saudi giants have averaged 1.66 goals per game. Almería have failed to score in their last two friendlies, so it is reasonable to expect that the Spanish side will try to show themselves this time, especially since in the two previous head-to-head meetings, the Red and Whites never scored fewer than three goals. Therefore, betting on both teams to score makes sense.