Chelsea vs Juventus: prediction and odds

The first stop on Juventus’s Asian tour pits them against Chelsea – a club the Old Lady has previously only encountered in the Champions League. Notably, the English side have managed to win only one of their last five head-to-head meetings with the Bianconeri.

Tactical Analysis: Chelsea

Chelsea’s last season was nothing short of disastrous. Three different managers (Enzo Maresca, Liam Rosenior, and Callum MacFarlane) took the reins, but none could drag the club out of its crisis – no silverware and a 10th-place finish in the Premier League meant no European football. The board has now placed its faith in Xabi Alonso, and under the Spanish tactician the Blues have already played two friendlies: a wild 6-4 victory over Australian side WS Wanderers and a 1-2 loss to Tottenham Hotspur, who played with ten men from the 49th minute.

In those early sparrings, the “aristocrats” rotated heavily and deployed a 4-2-3-1 formation, but we expect Alonso to gradually shift toward his favored 3-4-2-1 setup. The transfers made so far support this: Maxence Lacroix thrives in a back three, and Marco Palestra is a classic right wing-back. For now, a special mention goes to Jamie Gittens. The English winger missed the second half of the 2025/26 season through injury but has been very bright in these summer friendlies – contributing a goal or assist in each.

However, Gittens won’t be first choice in the upcoming campaign, because his position was filled by the most expensive signing of the summer. Morgan Rogers arrived from Aston Villa for €138 million, but he is still on holiday after the World Cup, along with two more automatic starters: Reece James and Enzo Fernandez. Meanwhile, Trevoh Chalobah, Benoît Badiashile, and Axel Disasi have been excluded from the Australia-Asia tour by club decision – they are being shopped around for new teams.

Tactical Analysis: Juventus

Juventus collapsed at the end of the 2025/26 season and missed out on the Champions League, yet Luciano Spalletti still enjoys enough trust from the board to continue building his project. The Bianconeri began their summer camp with a strong focus on laying a physical foundation, but “heavy legs” did not prevent them from going unbeaten in friendlies against traditional European mid-table sides: 0-0 vs Basel, 1-0 vs Standard, and 2-0 vs Nice.

Tactically, the emphasis has been on defense and intense pressing in midfield. And the nominal visitors can be proud of the result – zero goals conceded in all summer sparrings. Going forward, though, creativity is clearly lacking; their goals have come only from individual flashes from Fabio Miretti, Douglas Luiz, and Dustin Obawoduwo – three reserves fighting for starting spots next season.

New life in attack is expected to be injected by World Cup hero Kerim Alajbegović (whom Juventus beat Chelsea to sign) and a familiar face for Turin fans, Randal Kolo Muani. The French centre-forward flopped at Tottenham but scored 10 goals in 22 games for Juventus during the 2024/25 season. We expect both new boys to get minutes in this friendly. Khephren Thuram, however, remains absent – the key central midfielder is still recovering from a knee injury, so as before he will likely be replaced by Douglas Luiz.

Predicted Lineups

Chelsea (4-2-3-1): Sharman-Lowe – Palestra, Colwill, Fofana, Hato – Lavia, Esugo – Estevão, Palmer, Gittens – João Pedro

Out: Kenda, Emegha (both injured), James, Gusto, Fernandez, Rogers, Lacroix (all not in squad), Disasi, Chalobah, Badiashile (all club decision)

Head coach: Xabi Alonso

Juventus (4-2-3-1): Perin – Kalulu, Gatti, Kelly, Cambiaso – Locatelli, Douglas Luiz – Licina, Alajbegović, Boga – David

Out: Ekhator, Yildiz, Thuram (all injured), Gonzalez (not in squad)

Head coach: Luciano Spalletti

Prediction and Bet

Main prediction: Chelsea win @ 2.04

Juventus’s defense has looked solid against weaker opponents, but in Hong Kong they face a completely different pace. Chelsea are clearly further ahead in both fitness and team cohesion. Their defeat to Tottenham shouldn’t mislead – the Blues created a huge number of clear-cut chances and were only saved from a worse scoreline by Spurs goalkeeper Antonín Kinský’s phenomenal display. The Bianconeri, in contrast, have long had a problem position in goal, so heroics from Michele Di Gregorio or Mattia Perin cannot be expected. We back Chelsea to win at 2.04.

Total goals prediction: Under 3.5 @ 1.60

Nevertheless, we don’t expect a tennis-like scoreline like the one Chelsea produced against WS Wanderers. Juventus have been ultra-pragmatic in pre-season – only three goals total across three friendlies involving the Turin side. And Xabi Alonso’s men, when faced with a worthy opponent in another London club, managed only two goals themselves. So as an additional pick we opt for total under 3.5 goals at 1.60.